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Thread: 恒生银行:美国下半年经济将更见恶劣

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    Default 恒生银行:美国下半年经济将更见恶劣

    日本投资者似乎对近期纽元汇价下跌不太担心,认为这只是一个短暂的市场变化。这可从近期日本投资者大量吸纳纽元的情况反映一二。据东京金融交易所 (Tokyo Financial Exchange) 的数字显示,从杠杆外汇交易的净持仓合约数字中显示,截止周二日本投资者持纽元好仓达至 195,978 张,是自2006年有纪录以来最高,亦较两个月前的净纽元持仓量高出三倍。



    德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG) 昨日公布业绩,第二季盈利只有6.42 亿欧元,较其去年同期的27 亿欧元可谓有着天壤之别。主要是为其信贷及相关业务作出大幅撇账所致。事件反映,信贷事件不单影响美国,亦同时影响欧洲经济。



    欧元区15 个主要成员国的7 月份通胀高企4.1%,较6 月份4%通胀进一步上升,及远离欧央行所定下之2%通胀上限。在上述数据公布后欧央行委员 Wellink 在接受访问时指,控制通胀仍是该行的首任。似乎言下之意,就是区内经济转坏,如通胀失控欧央行仍有可能加息。欧央行对上一次加息是7 月 3日。另外,欧洲统计处同时公布区内6 月份失业率维持于7.3%水平。明显,欧元区经济正受到高通胀,紧缩的信贷环境,强欧元及环球经济放缓等利淡因素困扰。



    美国第二季经济生产总值按年比较上升1.9%与市场预期相若。一点值得留意,是该季的商业存货量出现急速下跌。这可能反映商界已有心理准备经济前景会转坏所以大幅度削减存仓。而市场普遍相信,随着退税支票效应过去,低息的环境又不能有效刺激经济,加上海外经济同时放缓,相信美国下半年经济将更见恶劣。而前联储局长格兰斯班则估计下半年美国经济出现衰退机会较大。

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    油价跌对埃克森美孚股价最为不利。加上其季度业绩逊于市场预期使其股价急跌4.68%。反观美股大市,担心经济前景投资者相继抛售股票。经济敏感股如重型机械商Caterpillar 及波音飞机公司股价则分别下跌3.5%及4.3%。至于道指则回落205 点以11,378 点收市。现市场正关注今晚美国公布的7 月份就业报告。市场估计非农业新增职位将有机会下降7.5 万名。



    全球最大在交易所买卖的黄金基金(ETF) SPDR Gold Trust(2840)昨日在香港首日挂牌上市。自此,该黄金ETF 已经分别在美国,新加坡,日本及中国上市。鉴于昨日基金比开市价700.5 港元上升0.8%收市且成交畅旺达1.47 亿港元,世界黄金协会方面指对基金表现满意,并表示协会正在申请在迪拜交易所上市此黄金 ETF 产品,相信是因为看中高通胀环境下中东有大量油元寻找投资出路。虽然金价攀升打击了内地,印度等需求大国的黄金首饰需求,不过投资需求就大增。 SPDR Gold Trust 从5 月开始已增加黄金购入,而相比两周前,其黄金持有量再增加3.47 公吨至706 公吨。此消息对黄金价格构成支持。

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    现在还看不出,象似回暖的迹象

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