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Thread: 乱谈逆市缩量平台

  1. #1
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    Default 乱谈逆市缩量平台

      众所周知,大盘下跌中能逆势企稳甚至上升的个股,要么是主力仍驻其中,要么是主力趁机吸货。这两个基本的判断得出一个结论:主力在场。故此,关注逆市股可谓是漫漫熊途中寻求避风港的最佳策略。这其实正是股谚"跌市重质""该跌不跌就看涨"的精华所在。本法正是从此原理出发,通过对逆市形态的捕捉,进而争取在与主力博弈中处于主动位置而最终获利。

      就形态而言,我们要介绍的第一个形态是在大盘下跌中,庄股悄然构筑出的逆市缩量平台。正因为其安全性较高而成为我们的首要关注。其特征主要有:

      一、在大跌市仍能缩量企稳构筑平台,逆市时间越长潜力越大。其中特别要强调平台要缩量,这是该形态中最关键的一点。因为在大盘下跌、压力区抛压等多重压力之下该股仍能够企稳,并且缩量,这已经很清楚地说明了两点:一是有主力在场,所以不跟随大盘下跌;二是主力一定达到至少相对控盘程度,才能在缩量的情况下保持股价不跌。同时,主力既然控盘,其伺机拉升的意愿势必强烈,相对而言,投资者处于主动地位。

      二、选择价位在主力成本区或相对底部的股票较安全。对投资者而言,可以首先淘汰掉主力高度控盘且股价在相对高位的逆市股票,除此之外介入剩下的逆市股风险不是特别大,这在调整市中有利于自我保护。其中的主力成本区一般可用成交密集区进行替代分析。

      三、此类股一旦在大盘企稳时开始突破,其拉升时往往逐步连续性放量。因为此前的平台缩量其实是成交量的累积阶段,从成交量的转换原理看,后面阶段就有个成交量的释放期,这恰好与拉升期需要放量的要求相辅相成。另外,正由于成交量集中持续地放大,造成股价运行的惯性较大,像刹车后失去动力但车仍会继续前行一样,股价在成交量缩小时仍会惯性上行,形成成交量的顶背弛,但这时候往往也就是股价将见顶的信号,应择机抛出。

      四、在操作策略上,可等待出现连续放量突破时及时买入。这时虽然不是介入的最低点,但往往是最安全点。

      例如隆源双登 (000835 行情,资料,咨询,更多):大盘自624行情见顶后开始阴跌,此股至2002年8月中旬已走出明显的下跌5浪,跌幅近7%。但该股这时却悄然走出一逆市缩量平台,且该平台离上方26元左右(复权价)的平台区较近,主力护盘蓄势相当明显。随后,在大盘企稳反弹时,该股主力顺势而为,借送转股题材大幅拉升,充当了小盘高价股的新龙头。

  2. #2
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    Default

    选择价位在主力成本区或相对底部的股票较安全。对投资者而言,可以首先淘汰掉主力高度控盘且股价在 相对高位的逆市股票,除此之外介入剩下的逆市股风险不是特别大,这在调整市中有利于自我保护。其中的主力成 本区一般可用成交密集区进行替代分析。

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