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Thread: 离市要有分寸

  1. #1
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    Default 离市要有分寸

       在交易过程中,有些部分相对较容易控制,有些部分相对较难控制。例如,我们能非常容易的控制入市时机。有经验的交易者基本可以控制因为一时冲动而入市的情况,因为经验给交易者知识,交易者可以设置一些条件,当市场满足的条件时就入市,反之就拒绝交易。很明显,在交易过程的入市时机选者上交易者拥有自主的控制权。寻找好的入市点不是容易,进入点是不完美的,但是在这一点上交易者是有控制的.比如交易者可以要求必须满足通常使用的两个指标参数和一个过滤条件,否则就坐在电脑边喝茶.

       然而一旦进入交易,控制能力就会变化。一旦进入市场,在一定时间内肯定必须退出交易.现在轮到由市场来控制,给交易者一个惊喜或者失败.

       做为离市的一种情况,止损是一个心理问题而几乎不能算得上是一个控制问题,因为交易者(除了大额交易产生的平仓问题)能简单的通过设置止损点来控制的损失.很多时候面对止损点被触发,交易者可能会感到平静因为可以退出交易。在损失次数上有赖于交易者系统的表现,但是在每次损失规模上交易者有绝对的控制力。

       面对盈利,交易者的控制力很小,市场的控制力很大.交易者可以做的,比如说一般是寻找防止赢利变小或变成损失.交易者不能强迫市场给200点的盈利,但能确保一旦有了这些盈利,就平掉头寸或者进行对盈利的50%保护的trailing stop策略,用一定的盈利为代价以寻找产生更大盈利的机会.

       用一个等式表述,可以用 资本的安全>可能的机会>一定利润的50% 来表述上面的观点.这样的观点可以有每个人不同的参数.同样的入市,由于离市也会产生不同的成败.

       关于保护盈利,一般人会不会想到一个很紧密的止损?实际上,有很多情况,在交易初期应该使用较宽松的止损,以保证对市场杂波的一定的宽容,而随着趋势启动,盈利的增加,逐渐收紧止损以保护盈利。

       跟踪止损是一种应有范围极其广泛的方法.大多数跟踪止损是专门用来实现盈利继续扩大目的的,因此,这些策略用在趋势跟踪系统上最有效。在反趋势交易系统中,采用固定利润的退场策略更合适。一旦有盈利,就把它放进口袋的交易理念非常适合于反趋势交易,因为期望收益是有限的。然而,如果交易是顺着趋势的,那么立即将盈利放进口袋的行为会让你有挫折感:在为寻找趋势的付出一定代价(一般是很多小的止损)后,以很小的盈利退出市场,然后眼睁睁的看着市场在随后的几天或者几个月内继续向着我们交易的方向走出一个很壮观的趋势。

       固定利润的退场比较容易实现.而跟踪止损的方法一般需要稍复杂些的方法。

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    Default

    小心爆仓啊

  3. #3
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tianc View Post
    小心爆仓啊
    哈哈 最要控制心态 就不会爆仓

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    一旦进入市场,做顺势而为的仓位。

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    交易初期应该使用较宽松的止损

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    而跟踪止损的方法一般需要稍复杂些的方法,跟踪止损的结果有时很无奈

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    一旦有盈利,就把它放进 口袋”的交易理念非常适合于反趋势交易

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    一旦有盈利,就把它放进 口袋这种习惯是错误的。至少赚不到大钱。

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    市场的控制力,我们胳膊扭不过大腿

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    不光是离市要有分寸,我们进市也是一样的,要有分寸.

  11. #11
    shaoyinwang
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    “然而一旦进入交易,控制能力就会变化”。。说的是,人在市场中,认识就会局限,每一个人进入市场后,都期望市场朝有利于自己的方向发展,因而丧失了理性判断。旁观者清。
    Last edited by shaoyinwang; 04-03-2009 at 06:10 AM. Reason: 写错

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