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Thread: 怎样运用基本面技术面数据面相结合的方式分析未来行情

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    Default 怎样运用基本面技术面数据面相结合的方式分析未来行情

      基本面中有技术面,技术面中有基本面,至于数据面则要看与基本面指出的方向是否一致,是否能对短期基本面进行修正。

      以上是我在上海黄金外汇特训营讲课时的一段话,重点想谈的是美元对欧元英镑以及日元的未来行情当然也是短线。在当前基本面对美元相对有利的情况下美国主要官员开始出面维护美元,强调通货膨胀风险,以及大多数数据比预期的要好,显示美国经济可能度过难关我们主要看技术面。

      技术面上美元远反转的图形仍然在延续。所谓远反转关键是一个远字。既然反转还远,而美元又不可能大幅度下跌,因此震荡是主流趋势。从美元指数星期五收出的图形看沟壑图形也说明未来几天大多数非美货币仍然是震荡。震荡有三种情况:震荡上行,震荡下行,来回震荡。未来几天怎么震?美元先上震荡上行,然后震荡下行,从整个星期的情况看,应该是震荡偏下,因为周末有美国非农数据不好的概率挺大。

      大家记住,在震荡的行情中,数据面起作用的概率特别大,可能出现方向的改变。所谓方向改变,一要看数据的偏离度,二要看技术面是否突破重要位置。所谓偏离度,主要看美国非农数据大约是多少。现在预测是下降6万左右,大于8万,美元会破位下行,美元指数回到72.3 小于5万,美元指数会上行,向73.8迈进。

      我们现在要特别注意美元指数图形,它既是个沟壑,又是个收敛三角形,因此突破很难,需要数据的支持,也就是短期基本面的变化指引。而今天的英国房地产数据非常差,预示欧洲未来的情况也可能好。这就是今天的基本面信号,因此我在星期六分析市场时指出:未来两天,美元指数缓慢上行,关键点在73.07。至于星期五空英镑的建议仍然坚持,因为今天会再次测试860,有可能破!至于星期五空欧日的投资者,没有快进快出的,或者战略性建仓的,可以拿住。如果仓位重,则要小心。虽然我相信欧日突破170也不可怕,但如果仓重,上帝是要惩罚的,何况欧日即使下跌,也还有顶部区域反复做多的谚语管着。

      最后警告:对初学者来说,最好别碰欧日,尤其是英日。我所谓的战略性建仓,本身就如美元远反转一样,给出的是未来式。

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    哈哈 学习了
    你中有我 我中有你呀

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