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Thread: 英镑欧元大跌 美元强劲反弹

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    Default 英镑欧元大跌 美元强劲反弹

    24日欧洲汇市,美元兑其他主要货币普遍走高,全球股市反弹并且油价跌破每桶125美元,令市场风险厌恶情绪减缓。欧洲两大经济体?德国和英国周四公布的关键数据表现疲软,加剧了市场对欧洲经济增长前景的疑虑,欧元和英镑因而大幅下挫。



    其中欧元兑美元跌至两周低点,英镑兑美元则跌破1.9850的关键支撑。

      美联储日前褐皮书报告显示,经济在一定程度上有所放缓,整体价格压力居高不下,住宅类房地产普遍走弱。进一步证实了美国正在面临经济放缓和通胀高企的双重考验,而住房市场仍是美国经济软肋,不过隔夜美国众议院通过了一项拯救房产市场法案,旨在扶持身陷困境的房利美和房地美两家公司,有助于稳定美国房地产及金融市场,投资者紧张情绪亦将逐渐恢复,美元巩固涨势。此外美联储理事普罗索重申,美联储应该在通胀预期恶化之前采取行动,加息举措宜早不宜迟。也引发了美元大幅度走强。

      欧元兑美元在欧市盘中探底回升。德国率公布的7月IFo商业景气指数低于预期值,凸显欧元区经济的迟滞现状,随后欧元兑美元跌至两周低点1.5653。技术面上,欧元兑美元跌破多条均线。5日均线拐头下滑,并先后下穿10日及20日均线,短线汇价走势维持偏弱。短线汇价连续失守多条均线,目前已下破布林线中轨1.5745附近及30日均线1.5710附近强支撑,若不能重返二者上方,倾向继续下探100日均线1.5650附近及60日均线1.5630附近,之后若进一步有效下破前期低位1.56水平,汇价面临进一步下滑风险;反之,汇价反弹重返30日均线及布林线中轨上方后,多条均线在1.5775-1.5830区间构成均线带反压,重返均线带上方才能解除短线下行压力。

      在美元强劲反弹下,因减息机会下降的英镑也在24日欧市盘中大跌,原因是受6月零售数据不及预期拖累,目前汇价跌至1.9882。技术面上,英镑兑美元在数据公布前已经触发1.9900下方小型多头止损,下探至1.9980附近持稳,随后公布的英国零售销售数据远低于预期,令英镑空方情绪大振,也直接击穿了1.9850支撑,触及1.9840附近的时段低点。上周汇价在突破1.9850之后,曾一度上扬至2.0150的高点,因此,该位被市场视为关键支撑位。

      日元兑美元于欧市盘中上冲108后遇阻后小幅下挫。技术面上,美元兑日元持续上行,5日均线追随汇价快速走高,中期均线逐渐抬头向上。汇价总体趋势偏强,短线展开反弹走势,初步阻力108水平,强阻力在前期显著高点108.58附近,预计该位附近存在较强卖盘。5日均线107.32对汇价构成初步支撑,其后支撑位于10日与20日均线交汇处106.55/65,该位同时是前期下降通道上轨切入点,突破后转为支撑。(兴业银行 李改云)
    交易是1 件慎重的事情~~~

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    晚间好象有上涨的动力

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