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Thread: 英央行会议记录公布后英镑兑美元小幅走高

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    Default 英央行会议记录公布后英镑兑美元小幅走高

    2008年7月23日 17:19

    23日欧市盘中,英镑兑美元短暂冲高、上探200日均线1.9945附近遇阻,继续维持1.99水平上方盘整,因英央行会议记录显示mpc内部分歧加大,贝斯利意外要求加息25个基点。短线汇价回探20日均线及1.99水平暂获支撑,反弹若能重返5日及200日均线目前所处的1.9945/55附近上方,汇价才有重新走强可能,其后目标指向2.0关口及2.0075附近;否则汇价跌破1.99水平强支撑,则倾向进一步下探4小时图布林线中轨1.9850附近,以及30日均线、100日均线及自1.94以来上升趋势线支撑切入位目前所处的1.98一线关键支撑。

    欧市盘中公布的英国6月bba贷款许可年降66.9%,至21118件,为历史最低水平;6月抵押贷款增加38亿英镑,也低于5月的增加45亿英镑。显示英国房产市场维持颓势,对英国经济构成进一步下滑风险。

    欧洲时段公布的英国央行7月9-10日货币政策会议记录显示,mpc成员7月以7:2投票维持利率在5.0%不变,其中布兰奇福劳如预期连续第3个月投票要求减息,意外的是贝斯利意外投票要求加息25个基点,推动英镑兑美元小幅冲高上探200日均线1.9945附近后遇阻。但央行虽然强调了短期通胀前景恶化,但也指出经济前景更加疲弱,潜在的经济急剧下滑风险削弱了加息的必要性,加息可能导致中期通胀向下偏离目标水平,因此mpc做出利率决定非常困难,也无法改变短期通胀形势,mpc也未就减息带来的益处具体讨论。mpc还暗示8月通胀报告将是释放英央行货币政策动向的最好时机。我们认为,英央行短期仍可能维持5.0%利率不变,不过最终将降息以刺激经济。会议记录公布后,英镑兑美元继续维持1.99上方盘整。

    稍后继续关注英国7月cbi工业订单差值。此外继昨晚美国财长保尔森稳定金融市场言论及美联储理事普罗索暗示加息后,晚间继续关注美联储理事米什金及美联储副主席科恩讲话,以及明晨的美联储褐皮书,以观察美联储对美国经济及通胀形势的最新判断。本周继续关注周四英国6月零售销售及德国7月ifo商业景气指数,周五英国第二季度gdp初值。

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    Default

    个人认为会持续走高!

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    Default

    mpc成员7月以7:2投票维持利率在5.0%不变

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