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Thread: 三大利空浮出水面 分析师认为欧元辉煌不再

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    Default 三大利空浮出水面 分析师认为欧元辉煌不再

    [日期:2008年07月17日 15:55] 来源: 作者: 字体:[ 繁體 大 中 小]
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    有海外媒体分析师相信,欧元的辉煌已成"明日黄花",理由有三:风险厌恶情绪再次升温、欧元区经济受全球经济低迷的打击程度正在上升;越来越多的人相信,干预美元跌势的支持力量正在增强。



    首先,从欧元/日元的表现中,可以明显看出,投资者开始对欧元失去兴趣。苏格兰皇家银行的首席货币分析师Steven Pearson指出,低息货币最新表现出来的这种避险角色,可能正在转变市场情绪。而欧元/日元所受到的压力,可能打压欧元/美元。



    给欧元带来压力的显然并不仅仅只是风险厌恶情绪升温,欧元区经济出现了受全球经济低迷冲击的信号,则是欧元本周大跌的另一个重要因素。周三已经证实欧元区通胀刷新纪录高点,达到4.0%。同时周初的德国ZEW商业景气报告则显示,成长放慢的速度大大超过了预期。



    法国巴黎银行伦敦首席欧洲经济学家Dominic Bryant说:"我们已经调低了成长预期值,现在预测西班牙经济全面衰退。"荷兰银行芝加哥货币分析师 Dustin Read表示,ZEW数据糟糕的表现表明,在市场对美国银行业的关注度减退之后,欧元可能因欧洲缓慢增长的经济而受压。渣打银行新加坡首席货币分析师Callum Henderson也认同Dustin Read的观点。



    这对于欧洲央行来说,意味着近期不大可能重复上个月对通胀发表的强硬言论。荷兰国际的欧洲经济学家Oscar Bernal认为,只要第二轮通胀效应仍处于控制中,欧洲央行中期内将不得不更多关注成长。



    而无论是从经济学角度还是从市场角度来看,投资者都不应追高欧元,这个因素就是市场干预的威胁。除了强势欧元损害欧元区经济以外,人们也认识到美元贬值正带来通胀压力。法国巴黎银行伦敦外汇策略全球主管Hans Redeker说:"我们相信,联合干预并成功提振美元的条件现在正在落实。世界各国越来越希望美元走强,而对中东将本币挂钩美元的国家来说,美元贬值特别让人担心。"



    同时,美联储主席伯南克周三讲话引起了官方可能干预的忧虑。当时他表示,市场无序波动意味着可以行动。不过他没有暗示这种行动近在眼前。

  2. #2
    wu2080
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    那就一起空它,不过突破了1.6,还是小空好,防这只是回调

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