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Thread: 实战迷思(10):切忌人云亦云

  1. #1
    Elder Analyst fxo8525's Avatar
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    Default 实战迷思(10):切忌人云亦云

    切忌人云亦云,须格物至知、实事求是---日币一定有年度结算资金回流行情吗?



    教投资人炒汇多年,发现投资人在心理上都有极重的依赖心理,通常不自己去分析市场,往往听到他人的分析就坚信不疑,连最基本的审查功课都不做,就敢投入大笔的资金,甚至身家性命财产,最后当然闹得血本无回



    举例来说:投资人在电话中及讲座中常问一个问题就是


    三月份,(或者九月份)快到了,日币是否有资金回流行情,我等了大半年,就等这一个行情,我想全仓买入,将以前输的钱一举赚回来


    这是一个似是而非的说法,我们也不必做太多的争辩,就让统计数字及图型来说话。



    请各位投资人先看表(-1),各日收盘价:(+代表日币升值;-代表日币贬值


    3月1日 3月31日,当月日币升/贬值 9月1日 9月31日,日币升/贬值6


    2000  107.24  102.69 +4.55105.95   108.13    -2.18

    2001  117.42  126.33-8.91118.75  119.55  -0.80


    2002  133.33132.68 +0.65118.09   121.69  -3.60


    2003  118.24   117.94 +0.30116.59   111.34  +5.25


    2004  108.95   104.26 +4.69109.52   110.08  -0.563


    2005  104.47107.17 -2.70



    许多资深交易员曾对usd/jpy做过一番研究,发现自2000年3月1日至2005年3月31日的11个日本国内半年结算月中,只有五次是升值的,而且五次中只有三次是明显 升值的


    若赌日币升值,只有11分之三的获利机会,远比以前提及的元月应效概率还低。另外注意,在2001年的3月1日至3月30日,日元自117.42贬到126.33。贬值了891点(见图-b11)。投资人不但没吃到羊肉,还倒输了一大把银子


    另外,2002年的9月2日至9月30日,日币也自118.09贬到121.69,贬了360个基本点(见图-2),这些都是明显的反例


    投资人不可太迷信访问一些不是很有根据的说法,只是因为自己已经全仓买入日元,就一相情愿去寻求及接受支持所有日币会升值的所有说法,这是很危险的投资操作法
    交易是1 件慎重的事情~~~

  2. #2
    wu2080
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    人云亦云问题不大,可能只是空话。但人赚你亏或人亏你损就惨了

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    Default

    切忌人云亦云,须格物至知、实事求是---日币一定有年度结算资金回流行情吗?

    没错啊

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