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Thread: 投资者预期美元兑主要货币未来6个月走低

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    Default 投资者预期美元兑主要货币未来6个月走低

    根据知名美商媒体对投资者的调查显示,因对美联储和美国财政部试图避免美国经济陷入衰退的信心衰减,投资者预期美元兑欧元、日元、巴西里尔、瑞郎在未来6个月内走低。
      这份彭博专业全球信心指数(Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index)月度调查显示,美国投资者3个月来首次对美元转向看空;此外自3月份以来首次看多瑞郎,对英镑的悲观情绪也有所减弱。
      调查结果也和期货交易商的预期相一致,期货交易商目前对美联储年内升息的预期不断在缩减。此外,受到市场对美国2大抵押贷款商损失的担忧,美元指数本周二创出3个月来新低。
      该调查取样全球5450位投资者,其中投资者对美元的信心指数自6月的58.49跌至7月的45.44,对瑞郎的信心指数自42.24升至59.37,对英镑的信心指数则升至42.41,创3月以来新高,投资者对日元前景更为乐观,信心指数自上月的43.08升至55.08。
      该信心指数高于50,表明投资者预期该货币将升值。
      美国道富银行(State Street Bank & Trust Co.)驻东京外汇交易主管Kimihiko Tomita表示:"我们自本月初以来便看好日元,市场很明显需要较长的时间来解决金融系统问题,我们预计风险厌恶情绪激昂推升日元。"
      但全球第二大货币交易商瑞银集团(UBS)驻伦敦策略师Geoffrey Yu维持对欧元/美元在3季度末跌至1.5300的预期,并认为由于欧洲经济放缓,欧元/美元08年底将跌至1.4000。

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    ,《金融时报》关于主权财富基金减少持有美元资产的报道继续打压,迄今最低到104.75/80,104.75和104.50附近有买盘支持,更强劲支持在104.00,亚市上行可能难以突破105.00。

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    我们自本月初以来便看好日元,市场很明显需要较长的时间来解决金融系统问题,我们预计 风险厌恶情绪激昂推升日元

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