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Thread: 美元/日元倾向于区间交易

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    Default 美元/日元倾向于区间交易

    日元走势很可能继续受到外部因素的推动,因为日本利率将在长时间内持稳,而其经济基本面又乏善可陈。股市是日元本周走势的主要推动力量,本周前几个时段美股低位持稳,美元/日元也出现了小幅的反弹;但周三美股受市场对信贷危机及上市公司业绩的担忧打压,收盘时大幅下跌,美国三大股指跌幅全部超过2%,美元 /日元也大幅回落,几乎回吐了过去两天的全部涨幅。金融市场动荡不安引发的风险厌恶情绪增加为日元提供了潜在支持,但套息交易的盛行则可能会打压日元。一些国内基本面良好而又利率较高的货币兑日元现正受到市场追捧,如欧元/日元现正接近历史高位,澳元/日元也接近年度高点。各国利率的相对持稳以及各主要货币对陷入区间震荡为套息交易创造了条件,即使是股市下跌引发的风险厌恶情绪上升也未必会减弱这种倾向,这一是因为目前市场上的套息头寸有限,另外股市下跌也有可能促使部分资金自股市流向了套息资产。美国标准普尔500指数现已自去年的历史高位下跌了20%,周三该指数创出了本轮调整以来的新低,未来很有可能进一步走低。股市下跌可能会在未来打压美元/日元上行,但套息交易则很有可能为其提供支持,因此,这两个正相反对的因素很有可能令美元/日元短期陷入区间震荡。

  2. #2
    wu2080
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    在106至107.50之间我觉得

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    Default

    利率的相对持稳

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