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Thread: 英国制造业加剧经济衰退担忧

  1. #1
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    Default 英国制造业加剧经济衰退担忧

    英国工业部门继续传来不利消息,工业生产和制造业生产均远低于预期,年率分别下降1.6%和0.8%。4月的数据也被下行修正,4月工业生产月率仅略微增长0.1%,而制造业停滞不前维持零增长。5月制造业采购经理人指数年内来首次出现收缩录得50下方,上周公布的英国6月制造业采购经理人指数更是跌至6 年半低点。暗示六月工业生产数据可能进一步恶化。英国经济呈继续下滑趋势,劳动力市场已经开始显示疲软迹象,衰退似乎只是时间问题,尽管通胀高涨,但疲弱英国经济状况无疑将打压英国利率前景。早前我们多次强调英国经济从基本面来看存在较大的下行风险,上周在非美多头短暂风光时,英镑兑美元提前出现了疲弱迹象,等到欧央行新闻发布会后非美全面下跌,英镑/美元早已经步入下跌节奏。周四英央行将公布利率决议,预期将维持利率不变。若英央行发表强硬的利率声明,将在一定程度支持英镑,若英央行未发布利率声明,市场将会把目光聚焦在美元上。本周二伯纳克将发表演讲,周四将在众议院金融服务委员会陈述证词,可能为美国利率前景进一步指明方向。周内公布的英国数据主要反映经济增长层面,主要包括:Halifax房价指数以及贸易帐,若数据继续令市场意外,可能再次引发英镑抛盘。

  2. #2
    wu2080
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    现在是空英镑的时候了吗,我还不敢空,盘太久了,特别是镑日

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