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Thread: 欧元泄气有助英镑粉墨登场

  1. #1
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    Default 欧元泄气有助英镑粉墨登场

    欧元泄气有助英镑粉墨登场
    昨日,欧洲央行将基准利率从4.0%调高到4.25%,与市场预期相符,不过央行行长特里谢新闻发布会未暗示今后可能继续加息,而更为强调经济增长存在风险。美国6月非农就业数据变化为减少5.5万,较市场预期大幅减少稍好。欧元多头急剧平仓离场,欧元/美元大跌超过200点,基本符合我们昨日今晚市场波动(特别是欧元/美元)可能较大,请小心的预测。
    欧元/美元从再次接近历史高位的1.5908急剧下跌至1.5673,严重打击多头信心的同时,从欧洲央行正式开始强调经济增长风险可以判断:1.6000附近将是欧元/美元的顶部,从近期欧、美官员的言论暗示中似乎也可看出欧美已经达成共识。
    在欧元大跌的影响下,英镑/美元昨日最低跌至1.9800,今日观察1.9800弱支撑和1.9760强支撑的支撑效果,若能稳守1.9800水平,仍然有望冲向2.0000,甚至冲刺2.0200目标。跌破1.9760,不利英镑上行。
    看涨英镑的另外一个原因是国际油价持续高企,昨日欧元大跌的同时,纽约期油创出145美元/桶的历史高位,伦敦期油更加创出146美元/桶的历史高位。若近日国际油价突破150美元/桶,美元难免再次面临被短期抛弃的困局。
    今日美国独立日假期,美国金融市场休市,市场交易清淡中可能需要警惕欧元/美元的剧烈波动。
    7月4日汇率阻力位、支持位预测如下:
    英镑/美元 阻力位:1.9880 1.9950 支持位:1.9800 1.9860
    欧元/美元 阻力位:1.5750 1.5800 支持位:1.5650 1.5600
    美元/瑞郎 阻力位:1.0300 1.0350 支持位:1.0200 1.0150
    美元/日元 阻力位:107.00 107.50 支持位:106.00 105.50
    澳元/美元 阻力位:0.9650 0.9700 支持位:0.9550 0.9500
    美元/加元 阻力位:1.0230 1.0280 支持位:1.0100 1.0050

  2. #2
    wu2080
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    跌不了多少了吧,会到1.4?

  3. #3
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    Default

    哎 美对日 我亏没了。。。。

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