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Thread: 糟糕数据重击欧元 升息缓行美元本周看跌

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    Default 糟糕数据重击欧元 升息缓行美元本周看跌

    受到欧元区不佳经济数据的影响,周一美元大幅攀升,兑欧元上涨至1.5500美元附近,美元指数则涨至73.40。美联储将于周二召开为期两天的决策会议,市场预计此次会议上升息的可能性仅为10%,但认为这次会议将为未来紧缩铺路。

      欧元区6月制造业和服务业pmi均下跌,令欧元走势受挫,从1.56美元上方暴跌至1.5520美元附近,而美元则自美联储将发表强硬信息的预期中受益。德国ifo企业景气判断指数6月降至101.3,为2005年12月以来最低。

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     英镑兑美元周一跌至盘中低点,至1.9650美元。此前英国央行一位决策者暗示,可能不需要以很多人预期的幅度或速度上调利率来令通胀压力下降。

      受益于澳元资产的利差优势扩大,澳元兑美元周一持稳于近两周高位0.9520美元附近,为连续第六个交易日上涨。澳洲政府发布的一则报告亦为澳元提供支撑,报告称澳洲2008/09年间的出口所得料大幅增加40%。澳洲最近数月的贸易改善持续推升澳元,澳洲央行警告称,强劲的出口可能加剧通胀和利率压力。利率期货市场显示,投资者已经押注央行在未来12个月里升息25个基点。

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    本周美元可能下跌。原因很简单,美联储(fed)在周三结束为期两天的货币政策会议后,不太可能作出利好美元的升息决议。尽管投资者越来越相信美联储行将升息,并且预计年底前可能加息三次,但这种预期在近来数日有所降温,因联储主席伯南克的观点似乎暗示目前暂无利率变动的计划。决策者担心加息恐打击本已脆弱的经济。

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    投资者将仔细研读联储的会后声明,寻找央行更侧重于通胀还是经济成长的线索。在情况明朗之前,美元将维持疲弱基调。但是即便美元疲软,欧元/美元也难以升穿1.5700-1.5800区域,除非美国经济数据令人大失所望。

      一旦美联储利率决策出炉,投资者将开始消化欧元区升息的预期。与美联储有所不同的是,欧洲央行(ecb)已暗示可能会在7月3日政策会议上将利率从目前的4%上调。欧洲央行执委会委员斯麦吉上周二称,欧元区利率上升25个基点应足以将区内通胀率拉回到2%下方。

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    本周将公布的美国数据包括周二出炉的6月消费者信心指数,路透调查预估为56.3。 将于周三公布的5月耐久财(耐用品)订单料较上月增加0.1%,5月新屋销售年率预计为51万户。周四将公布国内生产总值(gdp)第一季终值以及一周初领失业金人数。同一天公布的数据还有5月成屋销售。周五出炉的数据包括5月个人所得和个人消费支出(pce)物价指数。根据预估,个人所得料增长0.4%,pce以及核心pce料分别成长0.6%和0.2%。

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