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Thread: rba - FORECAST

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    Smile rba - FORECAST

    Forecast for forex trading

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    UPDATE

    As euro's intra-day rise has gathered momentum,
    suggesting further gain twds 1.5587 wud be seen,
    however, abv there is needed to confirm upmove fm
    1.5303 has resumed n extend twd 1.5610/15.

    Turn long on dips with stop as indicated, break
    wud prolong choppy trading n weakness to 1.5492 can
    not be ruled out but 1.5467 sup shud hold...

    Range Forecast
    +1.5545 / 1.5575+

    Resistance/Support
    R: 1.5587/1.5618/1.5685
    S: 1.5525/1.5492/1.5463

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    UPDATE

    Resistance levels: 1.5570/1.5630/1.5660
    Support levels: 1.5530/1.5470/1.5400
    EUR/USD has made pullback down to 1.5470 Support and our down target yesterrday on the break below 1.5530 exactly as it was suggested in our previous report No important fundamental news today No change in our view. On the upside , the upmove remains intact for further upmove towards1.5630 over the next trading sessions First target comes in the 1.5570-90 area On downside, first crucial Support comes near 1.5470 Below turns price back to 1.5400 in longer term
    Strategy-neutral

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    UPDATE

    Resistance levels: 1.9740/1.9800/1.9850
    Support levels: 1.9700/1.9620/1.9580/1.9500
    GBP/USD has risen above 1.9740 our target and Resistance over the last trading sessions exactly as it was suggested ( just a shy away from our second target at 1.9770 after stronger than expected UK Retail Sales numbers ( m/m) We have booked 60 pip profit over the first part of our Long position On the upside, as long as price holds above 1.9700 first immediate Support there are chances of further upmove towards 1.9800 later today On downside, below 1.9700 may squeeze price down to 1.9620 Support over the next trading sessions
    Holding GBP/USD Long at 1.9650, Stop-loss-1.9690( up from 1.9610), Take profit-1.9710( 1.9770 )

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    UPDATE

    Resistance levels: 108.00/108.60/109.00
    Support levels: 107.00/106.50/105.80
    USD/JPY has fallen below 107.80 previous crucial Support over the last trading sessions The break below these levels turns price back to 107.00 and even 106.60-50 region over the next trading sessions First important Support comes near 107.00 On the upside, there is Resistance near 108.00 yesterday highs ahead of 108.50-60 region
    Strategy-neutral

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    UPDATE

    Resistance levels: 1.0450/1.0550/1.0630
    Support levels: 1.0400/1.0310/1.0220
    USD/CHF has found base at 1.0310-00 area over the last trading sessions , recovering back near 1.0450-60 crucial Resistance as it was suggested on the break above 1.0380 . Now first immediate Support comes near 1.0400 . below turns price back to 1.0310 base over the next trading days On the other side, a break above 1.0450 is needed to signal for further upmove towards 1.0550 in mid term
    Strategy-neutral.

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    UPDATE

    Resistance levels: 168.00/168.40/169.00
    Support levels: 167.10/166.30/165.60
    The Cross has tested 167.00 levels over the last trading sessions , turning back into positive territory No change in our view. The uptrend remains intact and further upmove towards 168.00 and 169.00 over the next trading sessions may be seen as long as price holds above 167.10-00 first Support First minor Resistance stands at 167.80 On downside, below that area may cause pullback down to 166.30 later today
    Strategy-neutral.

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    Firm economic data out of the Eurozone, a sharp increase in Euribor (Euro money market rate) and waning expectations of a Fed rate hike all helped the selloff in USD in the London session. German PPI came in higher than expected for May at 1.0% after a 1.1% print the prior month. This took the annual rate to 6.0% from 5.2%, a near 2-year high. Italian industrial orders and sales rocketed higher in April rising 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively -- both much higher than expected.

    Thus the overall tone in Eurozone data was one of higher inflation and resilient economic growth and practically sets in stone an ECB rate hike next month. EUR/USD opened the session near 1.5512 and was sitting near the highs around 1.5609 at the end of London trading. The sharp increase in Euribor, which rose more than 30 bps to 4.43% is helping support Euro gains into NY trading as well.

    USD/JPY pulled back in the London session as the bad news about further downgrades of US bond insurers looks to have finally sunk in. US yields plunged overnight with the 2-year off 8 bps to 2.85% and the 10-year slipping 6 bps to 4.15%. This helped take USD/JPY from an open near 107.93 to a session close around the 107.55 mark.

    The weak nature of the USD helped Sterling (GBP/USD) extend gains as well. With no fresh economic data from the UK to bite on, markets are still on a sugar high from that recent booming retail sales report. GBP/USD opened London trading near 1.9722, ran as high as 1.9780 and would close a touch below there around 1.9763.

    For the upcoming NY session, look for some moves in USD/CAD as we get Canadian retail sales at 8:30ET. The market is looking for a 0.6% increase in April versus a 0.1% result the prior month. Canadian economic data has been surprising to the upside of late and, if past is prescient, we could see a likely retest of yesterday's USD/CAD lows around 1.0110.

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    The Dollar weakened against the Yen on the early trade, as a fall in Tokyo’s stock market diminished the appetite for risk and for carry trades, which involves selling low-yielding currencies such as the Yen and buy higher-yielding currencies and assets. The US Dollar traded at 107.86 against the Yen at 7:00am GMT. The Dollar is depreciating thanks to the release of weak US economic indicators this past week, including data that showed housing starts slumped to a 17-year low.

    The Dollar also declined against the Euro, on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold next week, in order to boost economic development, after it had stated it should increase borrowing costs due to high inflation. The US currency traded at 1.5528 against the Euro at 7:00am GMT. The Euro was also supported by the release of the German PPI m/m at 7:00am GMT, which was released better than expected at 1%.

    The Euro rise against the Yen, on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal on its speech later today that it can raise interest rates next month. The Euro traded at 167.50 against the Yen at 7:00am GMT. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker stated yesterday, before a European Unit summit, price pressures in the region are too high. “Monetary policy expectations will prevent any rapid declines in the euro versus the dollar and the yen”, said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. “A July rate hike is a done deal.”

    The Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar appreciated against the US Dollar on speculation both countries will maintain their rate advantage against the US. The Aussie rose 1.4 percent this week against the American Dollar and it traded at $0.9520 at 8:00am GMT. The kiwi jumped 1.6 percent against the US currency and it traded at $0.7619 at 8:00am GMT.

    Today investors will be paying attention to the release of Core Retail Sales m/m in Canada, which are expected to rise 0.5 percentage points, boosting the nation’s currency since it shows a positive trend in the economy. In the Euro Zone, ECB President Trichet will make a speech later today where he is expected to signal a raise in borrowing costs next month.

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    The Dollar rose versus the Euro on Thursday, helped by a sharp drop in crude Oil prices to 131.93 and a surge in British retail sales that caused traders to offload the European single currency to buy Sterling.

    May's surprise jump in retail sales raised expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates, helping to drive the pound to its highest level in over a week against the Dollar and spark a rally versus the Euro. While the Federal Reserve had turned hawkish due to rising price pressures ignited by record oil prices, analysts believe it is unlikely to raise U.S. interest rates before year-end as the economy remains sickly.

    Swiss National Bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.75% despite inflation at multiyear highs had some psychological effect on the market, but analysts cautioned against reading too much into the move. There had been suggestions that the Swiss bank's decision could mean the European Central Bank would not tighten policy further after an anticipated rate increase in July.

    Yesterday, EurGbp was down 0.96% to 0.7859. EurUsd was down 0.3% at 1.5499. GbpUsd rallied to an intraday peak of 1.9746. It was last up 0.67% at 1.9726. UsdJpy went up 0.18% at 108.01 while UsdChf rose 0.85% to 1.0443. EurChf rose 0.53% to 1.6184.

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    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had mixed day with multiple factors pulling and pushing the world’s largest currency. News of a large increase in the price of Oil in china sent Crude Oil future down over $5 in anticipation of weakening demand from the emerging powerhouse. Poor economic data had little effect with weekly jobless claims coming in a slightlyhigher than expected at 381K vs. the 375K forecast. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was also weaker at -17.1 vs. economists call for -10. In the US share markets, the NASDAQ was up 32 points (1.33%) and the Dow Jones was up 34 points (0.28%). Crude Oil closed down $5.03 ending the New York session at $131.65 per barrel.

    The Euro (EUR) came under pressure yesterday falling against all the majors as Oil fell and a large sell off in Swiss francs weighed. Once again the single currency gravitated towards the 1.5500 level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5467 and a high of 1.5586 before closing the day at 1.5495 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German PPI m/m is expected to come in at 0.9% for May and ECB President Trichet speaks.

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) sharp falls in the Nikkei (-2.33%) yesterday helped the yen gain as risk aversion crept into the market. EUR/JPY broke below 167 and USDJPY fell of the 108 handle. High yielder’s bounced as Wall St. recovered led by the GBP/JPY dragging AUS/JPY and NZD/JPY higher. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.42 and a high of 108.07 before closing the day around 107.86 in the New York session.

    The Sterling (GBP) received a massive boost with the May Retail sales seen at it’s strongest on record at 3.5% month on month. After last months fall of -0.3% May was expected to come in a little better at -0.1%. Strong clothing numbers caused by large one day sales have been put forward as an explanation. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9580 and a high of 1.9744 before closing the day at 1.9738 in the New York session.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a strong day taking advantage a rise in demand for high yielding currencies and a strong rally in Gold. AUD/JPY made new multi month highs consolidating above 102 and shrugging off early stock market weakness. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9448 and a high 0.9518 before closing the day at 0.9517.

    Gold (XAU) had a strong rally breaking up through $900 and quickly moving higher to $907.9 before a stabilizing stock market and large fall in Oil retraced most of the gains. Overall trading with a low of USD$884 and high of USD$907.9 ending the New York session at USD$898 an ounce.

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    UPDATE

    Friday's firm breach of previous sup at 107.42
    confirms recent upmove has indeed made a top last
    week at 108.59 n although 107.11 has contained weak
    ness, outlook remains mildly bearish for decline to
    107.00 but reckon sup at 106.56 wud hold in Asia.

    Sell dlr on recovery as only abv 107.70/80 wud
    signal intra-day low is made, 108.03/08...

    Range Forecast
    107.25 / 107.50

    Resistance/Support
    R: 107.68/108.08/108.59
    S: 107.11/106.79/106.50

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    The dollar fell broadly on Friday as fears of further write-downs in the U.S. financial sector raised speculation the Federal Reserve would not signal a shift toward tighter monetary policy when it meets next week. Rising oil prices, more inflation-busting talk from a European Central Bank official and an unexpected surge in German producer prices in May to a near two-year high added to selling pressure on the greenback. These developments were seen as confirmation that the European Central Bank would deliver an interest rate hike next month, as flagged at the bank's last policy meeting. A hike would further enhance the euro's yield appeal against the dollar.

    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's tough inflation talk boosted the dollar in recent weeks, but analysts reckon that signs of more turmoil on the U.S. financial sector could prevent the central bank from following the hawkish words with action. The Fed meets on June 24-25 and is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate target at 2 percent after slashing it by 3.25 percentage points since September. The statement accompanying the decisions will be closely watched for clues on the future course of monetary policy.

    U.S. interest rate futures have reduced the chances of a 25 basis points rate increase in August to about 40 percent from 48 percent. Expectations of a year-end rate hike have also been trimmed. The New York Board of Trade's dollar index, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, dropped to a session trough at 72.932 (the lowest level since June 10). It was poised for its largest weekly loss since March 30.

    The euro jumped to an intra-day peak of 1.5652 against the dollar. ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, writing in a column for the Financial Times published on Friday, said the central bank will have to raise interest rates unless the euro zone services sector improves productivity to counter higher commodity prices. At the same time, German producer price inflation rose at a faster-than-expected pace in May to its highest level since July 2006, fanned by surging energy costs.

    Cable maintained its early rally after the higher-than-expected retail sales data released on Thursday (an increase of 3.5% M/M and 8.1% Y/Y in May versus forecast of –0.1% and 4.1% respectively) and rose to an intra-day high of 1.9792 against the dollar.

    Oil prices earlier topped $136 a barrel, rebounding from Thursday's sharp sell-off after China's move to raise fuel prices. The dollar has tended to fall when oil prices surge due to speculation that oil-producing countries may use the increased dollar-denominated windfall from crude exports to buy euros and other currencies to diversify their portfolios. Worries about the health of the U.S. financial sector knocked stocks and sent the dollar tumbling against the Japanese yen. The dollar fell as low as 107.12 versus Japanese yen.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars posted weekly increases on speculation these commodity currencies will maintain their yield advantages over the U.S unit and rose to 0.9567 and 0.7648 respectively. The target lending rates of 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand compare with the 2 percent Fed funds target.

    On Monday, economic data releases include U.K. Rightmove house price index, German import price index, service and manufacturing PMI, eurozone's service and manufacturing PMI.

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    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) fresh credit fears sent the dollar lower yesterday as expectations of an interest rate rise decreased. US stocks fell to a 3 month low with Moody’s downgrading bond insurers and increased Oil prices hurting US car manufacturers. Over the weekend world and industry leaders met in Jeddah to discuss the record Oil prices, reports suggest that no OPEC wide agreements were reached but Saudi Arabia again confirmed its willingness to increase production. In the US share markets, the NASDAQ was down 55 points (-2.27%) and the Dow Jones was down 220 points (-1.80%). Crude Oil closed up $2.77 ending the New York session at $134.70 per barrel.

    The Euro (EUR) made good gains against the struggling USD on the back of rallying oil and firming expectations of a July ECB Interest rate rise. Initially upside momentum came from May German PPI coming in higher at 1.0% vs. economist’s predictions of 0.9%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5493 and a high of 1.5652 before closing the day at 1.5621 in the New York session. Looking ahead, a big day of data with June German manufacturing PMI expected at 53.2 alongside the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI forecast at 50.2. Also released is the June German IFO Index expected to weaken to 102.3 from 103.5 in May.

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) sharply lower stocks allowed the Yen to make solid gains into the close of the week as a spike in risk aversion supported. The correlation between equities and JPY has been weakening of late with renewed carry trade and high oil prices becoming the new theme. EUR/JPY was supported by large gains in the EUR/USD trading above 168 for the second time last week. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.12 and a high of 108.07 before closing the day around 107.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Q/Q forecast at -17. UPDATE BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions -15.1 Q/Q.

    The Sterling (GBP) supported from USD weakness as the market comes to grips with conflicting data and interest rate expectations. Early Monday saw the release of Rightmove House price index coming in at -1.2% for May. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9702 and a high of 1.9791 before closing the day at 1.9760 in the New York session.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) with weak economic data now old news, renewed carry trade interest and a rally in gold supported the Aussie into the weekend. AUD/JPY made new highs as a result taking the Aussie Dollar for the ride yet any further upside potential was limited as stocks fell in the US session. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9482 and a high 0.9567 before closing the day at 0.9534.

    Gold (XAU) made good gains reclaiming the $900 level as risk aversion spiked and broad USD weakness supported. Overall trading with a low of USD$896 and high of USD$907.40 ending the New York session at USD$903 an ounce.

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    UPDATE

    As dlr has fallen after brief recovery to 1.03
    70/72, suggesting decline fm 1.0475 wud resume for
    re-test of 1.0319, however, nr term o/sold condi-
    tion shud limit downside to 1.0303 n reckon 1.0270/
    75 wud hold fm here.

    Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
    wud risk correction to 1.0395/00 b4 down...

    Rate: +1.0320+
    Strategy: +Target met+
    Position: Short at 1.0361
    Objective: 1.0320
    Stop-Loss:
    Resistance: 1.0422/1.0440/1.0475
    Support: 1.0319/1.0303/1.0250

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