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Thread: 看股神巴菲特如何投资债市

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    Default 看股神巴菲特如何投资债市

    今年以来,市场对于债券或债券类产品的兴趣日益浓厚,这本是优化组合的一件好事,但还是有不少投资人走向了另外一个极端,把全部资产押宝债券。

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      先来计算几个数学题目。如果一档10年期的国债,每年给投资人付息3.5%,那么投资人若投资100元,每年就可以获得3.5元的债息;如果未来每年的经济成长以及实质利率可能掉下来,每年也许不超过1%,那么100元面值的债券可能会一路上涨到123元,以达成每年实质收益1元的目标;如果未来每年的经济成长率或通货膨胀率跑到15%附近,那么按照每年实质收益率的计算,100元面值的债券应该掉到41元,才会符合每年15元的实质收益,投资人的投资报酬率大概是跌六成。债券跟股票一样,会涨也会跌,真动起来,波幅也不小。



      如果你眼光精准,从1998年投资包括俄罗斯在内的新兴市场债券,到2008年,中间虽有起伏,实质报酬从19%降到4.25%,100元面值的债券价格从32元涨到94元,一来一回报酬真的不少。以一家去年刚被三家银行合并拆散的国际级资产管理公司旗下基金为例,该系列基金过去五年最赚钱的是拉丁美洲基金,涨600%,其次是中国基金,涨371%,第三居然是他们的新兴市场债券基金,涨290%。按净值算,10年可以赚4.6倍,债券投资操作得好,也可以获得很多的报酬。



      事实上,股神巴菲特早在27年前,也就是上一波美国联储局利率最高点的时候,大幅加码美国公债。1981年,爱抽雪茄的美联储主席伏克尔将基准利率升到15%以后,总算把失控的通货膨胀有效控制。于是,1981年三季度债券与股票市场终于同步大涨,展开了超过25年的全球债券市场的超级牛市,股票投资功力老到的巴菲特在债券市场也大获全胜。同时投资股票与债券市场,对于投资组合的报酬率不见得会有太多减损,但是以不同的投资工具进行积极管理,却可以在获得高报酬的同时,有效管理投资风险。

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    但是以不同 的投资工具进行积极管理,却可以在获得高报酬的同时,有效管理投资风险。

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    比较国与国之间的经济数据通常是作为外汇基本面分析的一 种手段

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