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Thread: 罗杰斯力劝投资商品市场

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    Default 罗杰斯力劝投资商品市场

    国际投资大师罗杰斯又到上海向投资者推销其近期的投资心得。这一次,他选择了白糖。罗杰斯表示,小麦、玉米、棉花、白糖、大豆五种农产品的表现都存在不确定性,不一定会有最好表现。但如果一定要从中选择一种,那他会选择投资白糖。他认为,在未来几年,白糖将会有比较不错的表现。



      罗杰斯表示,目前确实有些商品价格已经远高于历史高位,比如白糖、咖啡、棉花等。如果同时考虑通货膨胀的因素,可能大多数商品价格都远未达到历史高位。



      为了劝说客户投资于国际大宗商品,罗杰斯特意更新了原来的罗杰斯国际商品指数,推出第二代指数包括能源、农业和金属三大类别的37种上市商品,与第一代指数相比,品种更加广泛,投资更加分散。数据显示,1998年7月31日至2008年4月1日期间,第一代指数总回报率为380.2%。而根据历史倒流测试结果,第二代指数同期总回报率则高达479.5%。显然,罗杰斯进一步深化了他对国际商品市场的看法,即所谓商品牛市,表面上看是由于供应与需求的失衡,实际上则是缘于美元的不断贬值。



      据记者了解,罗杰斯推荐的白糖期货,其主力809合约正在向901合约过渡。昨天白糖901合约低开高走,冲破5日均线涨1.97%。长城伟业分析师李海隽认为,近期国际糖及农产品暴涨暴跌,农产品的大幅波动并不是商品供求短期内发生了什么大的变化,而是金融因素在发生作用。



      值得一提的是,商品牛市的阀门还是掌握在美联储手中。一旦美国次贷危机见底,美联储再度进入加息周期,此时商品牛市或将告一段落。但在罗杰斯看来,美国通胀情况较公布数字还要差,甚至会出现二次大战后最严重的经济衰退;而次贷危机已蔓延至汽车和信用卡等其他领域,泡沫情况相当严峻,预计完全解决相关危机要耗时5到8年。显然,若投资者并不同意他的这一判断,则对商品市场就要抱谨慎态度了。

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    但在罗杰斯看来,美国通胀情况较公布数字还要差,甚至会出现二次大战后最严重的 经济衰退;而次贷危机已蔓延至汽车和信用卡等其他领域,泡沫情况相当严峻,预计完全解决相关危机要耗时5到 8年。

    乖乖,罗杰斯可真敢想啊,5到8年,那美国不衰到家了吗?

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    sss666转的这些文章学术性还挺强,受教了

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    国际投资大师罗杰斯又到上海向投资者推销其近期的投资心得

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