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Thread: 英央行6月会议纪要:mpc以8比1的投票比例维持基准利率不变

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    Default 英央行6月会议纪要:mpc以8比1的投票比例维持基准利率不变

    英央行18日发布的政策会议纪要显示,货币政策委员会6月以8比1的投票比例维持基准利率于5.0%不变。

    综合外电6月18日报道,英央行18日发布的政策会议纪要显示,货币政策委员会(MPC)6月以8比1的投票比例维持基准利率于5.0%不变。

    虽然MPC的投票结果符合预期,但纪要表明一些成员表示考虑立即加息。若条件变化,MPC并未将未来进一步降息的举措拒之门外。

    MPC成员中唯一投票要降息25个基点的是布兰法罗(David Blanchflower)。经济学家曾预期他将是维持利率不变的唯一反对者。

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    英央行在07年12月、08年2月和4月分别降息25个基点,但在5月和6月维持政策稳定。

    纪要表明,多数成员认为,通胀风险已进一步上行,政策稍大程度的松弛是目前确保通胀回到中期目标的必须,这是有可能的。因此,多数成员认为,虽然将来收集通胀和经济活动信息中处境可能会变化,但6月降息不现实。

    同时,一些成员认为,通胀方面的消息已足以考虑立即加息是否可行。但纪要显示,MPC成员对目前加息出现大量的争论。这包括一系列迹象表明中期通胀预期仍被锚定,市场没有立即加息的预期。

    MPC认为意外的加息可能会达不到预期目的,这会夸大委员会对中期通胀前景的担忧。因此MPC应继续判断增长和通胀预期如何发展。

    布兰法罗重申了降息的观点,称通胀对增长带来绝对负面的风险,虽小但日益增强。

    行长金恩(Mervyn King)在对财政部的信函中表示,08年的通胀年率将超过4%,09年底前可能会回到央行2.0%的目标。但暗示加息并不是即将发生,若央行加息将未来12个月通胀压低至2%之下,那么对经济增长和就业的成本之高将无法承受。

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    该数据迫使英央行行长金恩(Mervyn King)向达林递交信函对通胀加以解释。在信中,金恩预计英国下半年通胀将升至4%上方,但暗示央行将不 急于在未来数月加息。

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