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Thread: 遠東商行:6月18日外彙買賣策略(做空)

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    Default 遠東商行:6月18日外彙買賣策略(做空)

    遠東商行:6月18日外彙買賣策略(做空)
    方向 进场 获利 止损

    美日 卖 108.00 107.50 108.50

    美瑞 卖 1.0430 1.0380 1.0480

    澳美 买 0.9430 0.9480 0.9380

    美加 卖 1.0200 1.0130 1.0270

    欧日 卖 167.70 167.00 168.30






    週二日本公佈4月第三产业指数成长1.8%远优于预期,支撑日圆回升。据华尔街日报指出,不排除美国联邦准备理事会(fed)于8月升息的可能,但市场对升息的预期心理可能过度,另金融时报亦报导称,市场对fed今年可能数度升息的臆测与fed内部立场不符,打击美元兑日圆跌至107.61低点。前日本财务省财务官渡边博史表示,美国可能希望保留买进美元干预匯市,以便必要时藉此抑制通膨,另日本首相福田康夫唿吁八国集团(g8)明确传递舒缓能源及食品价格的讯息,提供美元支撑。由于欧元区通膨创纪录新高令央行下月升息几成定局,推升欧元兑日圆至167.83近11个月新高,带动美元兑日圆升至108.39高点。美国昨晚公佈5月生产者物价指数上升1.4%高于预期,但房屋开工仅97.5万为近17年新低,且第一季经常帐赤字扩大至176.4亿美元,工业生产下滑0.2%及设备使用率仅79.4%较差,fed恐将延后升息,令美元涨势受限。预估今日美元兑日圆压力于108.00-20,支撑于107.20-50。


    週二媒体质疑fed升息的预期过度,相对欧元区创纪录的通膨提高欧洲央行(ecb)下月升息的机率,利差优势推升欧元兑美元至1.5551高点。德国公佈6月zew经济预期指数降至负52.4,另ecb执委会委员斯麦吉表示升息25个基点应足以将通膨率推低至目标水准2%以下,其评论冲击欧元兑美元下挫至1.5461低点。美国疲软的房屋及工业数据削弱fed升息的预期,限制美元涨势。预估今日欧元兑美元压力位于1.5520-50,支撑于1.5440-60。


    昨日英国公佈5月消费者物价指数上升0.6%高于预期,年增率达3.3%高于央行的2%目标,激励英镑兑美元升至1.9699高点。央行总裁金恩致信财政部表示,过于激进的平抑物价举措将引发市场震荡,降低升息的可能,令英镑兑美元重挫至1.9470低点。市场关注今日英国央行公佈会议纪录,预估英镑兑美元压力于1.9580-1.9600,支撑于1.9450-80。

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