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Thread: 英皇金融:歐元區間波動待變

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    Default 英皇金融:歐元區間波動待變

    英皇金融:歐元區間波動待變
    Eur 歐元



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    ‧通膨年率升至紀錄高位

    ‧阻力參考1.5530‧1.5620‧1.5800*

    ‧支撐參考1.5450‧1.5400



    歐元區間波動待變 ―

    德國6月zew經濟預期指數大幅低于預期,智庫zew經濟研究院公布的一項備受關注的調查顯示,6月德國投資者對于該國經濟前景的信心下降幅度遠超過預期。zew稱根據對264名分析師和投資者的調查,6月德國經濟預期指數滑至負52.4,5月時爲負41.4。市場原先預估6月指數爲負42.0。德國經濟現況指數則一如預期從5月的38.6下滑至37.6,歐元區6月預期指數降至負52.7,5月爲負43.6。



    歐元兌美元周二錄得小幅漲勢,美國5月房屋開工年率降至逾17年來低點,令投資人愈發質疑美國聯邦儲備理事會(fed)及早升息的預期。但歐元升幅受限,市場亦調降了歐元區收緊貨币政策的預期,因歐洲央行(ecb)執委會委員斯麥吉稱25個基點的升息應足以令歐元區通膨回落至2%目标水準下方。5月美國房屋開工年率降至97.5萬戶,爲1991年3月來最低。其它經濟報告顯示,美國5月生産者物價指數(ppi)較上月上升1.4%,升幅大于預期,而首季經常賬赤字以爲擴大。



    圖表分析所見,歐元回穩至5天平均線上方,當前10天平均線1.5530可望企穩,而首要考驗将爲50天平均線15615水平,打破此區可望歐元進一步挑戰1.58關口。若果歐元到達1.58關口,在型态成會促成雙底,繼續有機會發展新一輪上漲行情。下方較有意義支撐1.5450水平及1.54關口。



    相關要聞:

    歐盟統計局公布歐元區4月貿易順差23億歐元,預估爲逆差14億歐元,3月從逆差23億歐元修正至逆差15億歐元。



    歐洲央行(ecb)管委會委員穆爾許周二稱,ecb和美國聯邦儲備理事會(fed)在試圖完成不同的使命,因此它們的政策響應是有細微差别的。但他指出兩家央行對經濟的分析幾乎沒有分别。他并稱ecb處于高度警覺狀态,在未來兩周這将與央行曾經使用的警惕一詞有同樣的意味。他預計歐元區經濟成長可能會在今年第二季觸及低點,此後會開始加快成長步伐至2009年底将接近潛在成長率。他并指ecb在7月3日會議上升息存在一定的确定性。

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