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Thread: 美元下半年逐步复苏 但恐风光难再

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    Default 美元下半年逐步复苏 但恐风光难再

     美元可能在今年下半年到明年这段时间里上演逐步复苏的行情,但由于发展中经济体的影响力和经济实力与日俱增,美元可能再也无法夺回昔日的主导地位.

      本周路透投资展望峰会的与会者纷纷表示,随着中国、巴西、中东石油出口国等重量级经济体的崛起,强势经济的重心正在远离美国消费者,而美国消费一度是全球经济增长的火车头.

      这促成了五年来美元的跌势.由于自去年开始的美国房市大幅下挫以及信贷紧缩,带来一波美国次优抵押贷款违约,美元的跌势在近期加剧.

      "我认为,所有人将不得不习惯于美元的不断走低."BMO Capital Markets外汇交易主管Firas Askari说,"我并不是说美元将不再是世界储备货币,未来10到15年美元仍将是储备货币,但我认为美国消费者是全球所有产品的最终消费者,这一局面将发生改变."

      实际上,由于未来几年全球财富的分配可能愈加均衡,美国出口商要将自己的产品卖给日益富有的亚洲消费者,就需要美元贬值.

      "实际情况是,美国仍有很大的贸易逆差,随着时间的推移,缩窄逆差的唯一办法就是让美元更具竞争力."美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)主管Martin Feldstein说.

      "当局并不希望这种情况太快出现,但他们不得不承认,美元竞争力的增强是一种长期趋势."

      美元贬值帮助美国今年第一季贸易逆差出现六年来的首次缩窄,许多经济分析师认为出口的增长可成为支撑迟滞美国经济成长的主要因素.

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    Default

    美元可能在今年下半年到明年这段时间里上演逐步复苏的行情

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