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Thread: 美元兑瑞郎短线上冲为主 长期缺乏支撑

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    Default 美元兑瑞郎短线上冲为主 长期缺乏支撑

    美国政治与经济界重磅级人物接连登场,再次向市场贯彻强势美元的决心。汇市美元在不断升级的言辞中被直线推升,兑瑞郎连续突破多道均线阻力压制,上行试探1.0550/1.0200区域上档边界。

      尽管从技术上看,短线美元/瑞郎指标强势,后市还是以上冲为主,但美元本轮走强,主要依靠鹰派官员讲话推动,缺乏持续性的上涨动能。且美联储贸然升息很可能出现像滞胀等问题,这将对经济造成重击,因此从近期美官员的讲话判断美元的中期走强,并不到时机。

      相反下周四瑞士央行的利率决定,可能反倒给瑞郎一个重新走强的机会。瑞士5月最新消费者物价指数年率上涨2.9%,创下了自1993年10月以来的新高,并超过了市场的普遍预期,除了持续飙升的能源与食品价格外,核心通胀也创下了自1996年初以来的新高。随着全球范围内通胀形势恶化,使得瑞士央行可能也将被迫走上加息之路。在此前央行行长罗斯的讲话中,已经体现出了这点,其明确表示,由于通胀压力明显加大,央行将打起十二分精神,如果央行认为经济下滑的速度不足以减轻通胀压力,或是担心不断高企的通胀水平会危及信贷能力,那么必将改变目前偏向宽松的货币政策,对瑞郎来说就是重大利好消息。

      从日图分析,美元/瑞郎自1.0200下方以来的上涨,连续突破中长期均线的压制,向上挑战1.0530/50区域,尽管指标向上发散,但是整体趋势仍没有摆脱前期下跌通道,上行空间受到压制。从周图看,30周均线1.0650区域是关键阻力,也是前期持续压制汇价反弹的平台,预计本轮的反弹也将持续受制于此区域下方,目前的冲高有望是寻机做多瑞郎的机会,逼近1.0550区域可考虑开始轻仓买入瑞郎,目标下看1.0350/00。只有突破1.0650才表明阶段性底部形成,止损反手买入美元/瑞郎,等待其上探1.0800/1.1000区域。

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    汇市美元在不断升级的言辞中被直线推 升

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