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Thread: 加元空头占据优势

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    Default 加元空头占据优势

    本周,加拿大央行意外宣布维持指标利率在3%不变,而非市场预测的降息25个基点,且加央行暗示因通胀压力沉重而结束降息周期。加央行在会后声明中称,当前的货币政策适度宽松,有助于总需求和总供给保持平衡,并实现2%的通胀目标。由于全球经济成长和商品价格涨势均超过预期,因此通胀较其4月预估水准上升的风险加大。

      近期油粮价格大涨,推升通胀超越各国中央银行能容许的范围,决策官员目前最担心的议题从信用急冻转为通胀。国际货币基金预测,2008年全球通胀将是13年来最高,虽然经济展望仍弱,但全球利率可能已触底。近日油价飙升并一度创出139美元的历史新高。石油输出国组织(OPEC)秘书长巴德里呼吁各界保持冷静,称目前的油价令人难以忍受,并非市场供应短缺,并且巴德里在路透全球能源峰会上表示支持沙特阿拉伯关于召开产油国-消费国会议的建议。OPEC的"放任"使得油价仍居高不下,对加元提供了一定支撑。

      而从近期加拿大公布的经济数据来看,经济有所放缓。5月Ivey采购经理指数为62.5,好于市场预期,5月国际资本流入52.96亿加元也高于预期,但其他数据表现不佳,GDP月环比下降0.2%,5月零售仅增长0.1%,工业生产价格上涨、制造业发货量下降、汽车销量下降,就业增量低于预期均拖累了加元走势,整体来看,若通胀仍不能有效抑制,加拿大经济将进一步放缓。

      图形显示,加元本周暂缓颓势,美元兑加元在1.02整数一线交投,周中曾一度上触1.0323近两个月内新高。本周美元对加元上测2007年12月中旬至今的通道上轨1.03整数而未能有效突破,而10日均线也逐步上移至1.0150一线,指标显示,RSI上周随K线飙升上穿50分水岭后,本周守稳于60整数上方,预示目前加元空方仍占据优势,后市若美元兑加元上破1.0270-1.0300的中期阻力位,则交易区间将上移之1.03-1.08,短线下档支撑位于1.0150,较强支撑位于1.0020和0.9850。

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    Default

    推升通胀超越各国中央银行能容许的范围

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