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Thread: 利率对汇市的影响!

  1. #1
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    Default 利率对汇市的影响!

    从理论上讲,一国的利率上升将带动该国货币汇率上扬,利率下降将带动该国货币下跌,但在短期交易中汇价走势的实际表现往往与理论分析相反。

    在央行召开货币政策之前,市场早已经对央行的加减利率行为和央行利率变化的幅度作出预先估计,并在市场汇价走势中予以体现。当央行公布利率变化符合预期时,汇价走势也就常常会符合谣言来临时买进,事实来临时抛出的规律。只有当利率变化幅度超过市场预计范围时,才会给汇价走势带来新的变化。

    由于市场的预期不同也会对汇价走势带来影响。当市场认为减息有利于经济发展时,减息行为将成为对汇价走势的利好消息;当市场认为升息虽然能够抑制通货膨胀,但同时也限制经济发展时,升息行为将成为利坏消息。

    通常美国、日本、英国的利率变化较为符合市场预期,而欧元区的利率变化经常表现为出乎市场意料,在市场认为将要加减息时常常不会加减息,当市场认为利率不会变化时却出人意料地调整利率。

  2. #2
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    Default

    一国的利率上升将带动该国货币汇率上扬,利率下降将带动该国货币下跌

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