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Thread: 分析师并非算命先生!

  1. #1
    Elder Analyst
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    Default 分析师并非算命先生!

    95%以上的投资人都会习惯性地向所谓的专业人士探询所谓的明牌 (如六合彩开奖前的报牌预测)。其心态和平常人跑到算命摊上问卜、试图预知未来并没有太大的差异。这种投资人把分析师当作算命先生的情况,我称之为水晶球现象。

    问明牌并无可厚非,充足的信息原本就是社会中最有价值的资源,再专业的金融操作者也习惯于和其他高手交换市场信息。但是,一般投资人和专业操作者之间最大的差异在于,专业操作者通常很清楚他们所得到的只是一个可以深入研究的参考资料,而非打开获利致胜之门的钥匙。尤其是专业操作者的交易计划中必定具备逃生砍仓停损计划,使得他们在明牌失效后能迅速出脱错误部位,安然脱困。反观一般的投资大众,对于明牌常有不切实际的期待,总以为提供明牌背后一定代表着有哪些法人、主力、庄家在撑腰,所以明牌是准确无误的。

    所谓的金融市场明牌和六合彩的明牌不同之处在于,金融市场明牌通常是经由推荐者事先的研究,或是知悉内线消息后所提出的投资组合建议,而六合彩的明牌则是经由非科学的程序所得出来的随机结果。

    因此,金融市场明牌应该并不是由推荐者胡乱说出来的,不论分析者采用的是基本分析戚是技术分析,他在推荐个股时必然是根据特定的前提假设条件,来预测或判断个股是否值得投资人买进。我们要强调的是这些前提假设条件绝对都是动态性的,分析师无法预测经济指针、企业获利成长性或是价格的上涨目标,就如同气象专家无法告诉你几点几分会下雨一样。

    在阅读任何一篇分析师的市场报告时,不论他是多么的鼎鼎有名,文章写得多么的充实、合乎逻辑,你都要在里面试着找出一样重要的东西,那就是那篇文章的前提假设是什么?正因为没有任何一项预测是万无一失的,所以我们如果发现那些前提假设条件不合现实,则该篇分析稿的结论就已经站不住脚。也就是说,那种金融产品就可能已经不再值得投资了。

    所以,一篇没有前提假设的论文所下的结论是不值一顾的。相反地,当一个分析师能够依据明确的假设条件来判定某一种金融产品值得推荐,则日后当这些假设条件改变,并造成价格未能如原先预期般有所表现时,这个分析师并不算失职。毕竟,他是根据严谨科学程序从事分析研究工作的,而并非是用水晶球说故事的算命先生。

  2. #2
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    所谓的专业人士

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