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Thread: 基本面解读领先指标

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    Default 基本面解读领先指标

    领先指数(Leading Indicator),也叫领先指标或先行指标,是预测未来经济发展情况的最重要的经济指标之一,是各种引导经济循环的经济变量的加权平均数。

      领先指数由众多要素构成,涉及国民经济的诸多方面,以美国的领先指数为例,主要包括下列要素:

      1 制造业平均每周工作量。

      2 平均周申请失业金人数。

      3 制造商新增消费品和原材料订单。

      4 卖主交割执行情况其工厂延迟交货的百分比。

      5 工厂和设备的合同、订单。

      6 新增私人投资的营建许可。

      7 M2货币供应量。

      8 标准普尔500股票指数及股息收益。

      9 密歇根消费者信心指数。

      10 生产成本与卖价间的差额。

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     倘若这些要素有多数向好,则可提前预期领先指数将会上升。

      领先指数通常每月公布一次,各国公布时间不尽一致。假如领先指数连续三个月下降,则预示经济即将进入衰退期;若连续三个月上升,则表示经济即将繁荣或持续扩张。通常领先指标有6至9个月的领先时间,在美国,一般认为领先指标可以在经济衰退前11个月预测经济下滑,而在经济扩张前3个月可预测经济复苏。二战后,领先指数已经被成功的用来预测西方发达国家经济的荣枯拐点。

      通常来讲,外汇市场会对领先指数的剧烈波动做出强烈反应,领先指数的猛增将推动该国货币走强,领先指数的猛跌将促使该国货币走软。

      当前对外汇市场影响最大的当属美国的领先指数,由美国商务部公布,时间大体在每月的最后一个工作日。其他国家比如日本、瑞士、加拿大、德国等也会公布领先指数,德国的zew经济景气指数和ifo经济景气指数也包含一定领先指数的意味。

    外汇通研究部

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    领先指标还是对外汇影响比较大的一个指标,出来的时候容易引起大的波动,要注意操作

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    领先指数由众多要素构成

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    领先指数由众多要素构成,涉及国民经济的诸多方面,

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