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Thread: 实际利率和美元汇率的关系

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    Default 实际利率和美元汇率的关系

    国际热钱的趋向是左右美元和其他货币的趋势最主要的理由之一.简单的说,热钱进来,那个国家的货币就有升的机会,热钱出走,那个国家的货币就有跌的机会。那什么原因会导致这些几万亿美元的热钱天天游走在各国货币之中呢?就是两个字利息,更准确地来说,更吸引人的实际利率也就是存留在各国货币之间的利差...

      简单的说,实际利率是从表面的利率减去通货膨胀率的数字.......哪一个国家的实际利率更高,热钱向那里走的机会就更高。最近美元一直在高企的理由,就是因为美元的实际利率在提高,美联储加息的预期在继续,所以国际热钱向美国投资流向就比较明显。投资的方式也很多,比如债券,股票,地产,古董,外汇.其中,债券市场是对这些利率和实际利率最敏感的市场。美元前两年一直跌的最主要理由,也是因为美国的实际利率在跌下去的趋势之中,甚至可能变成负实际利率的情况。可以说,美元的汇率是基本上跟着实际利率趋势来走的。现在美国的实际利率有所提高,美元的走势才得以有所缓解。只要美国的实际利率保持增长,走到上升的趋道上来,那么美元才可能开始长期上升的机会。美元的长期趋势是涨是跌,目前来看,还不能确定,由于美国的贸易赤字和资金流向的相关性问题是最值得我们思考的。也是最值得研究的问题。

      今年初美元的反弹也是靠着利率上升的预期和大量的沽美元的平仓盘引起的结果。现在这种预期已经给市场消化掉,平仓盘也七七八八平掉,再发挥它的预期威力的机会不多,如果美元开始停止加息,那么美元开始再跌一波的机会就会很高。所以做外汇的买卖要密切注意债券市场的发展作参考。特别是要看实际利率的趋势对外汇买卖的参考。资本流入和贸易赤字的关系为依据。

  2. #2
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    Default

    实际利率是从表面的利率减去通货膨胀率

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    Default

    热钱进来,那个国家的货币就有 升的机会

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