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Thread: 波幅分析方法

  1. #1
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    Default 波幅分析方法

    波幅也是我们判断行情运行节奏的主要因素之一,然而这项指标却是很多投资者最为陌生的一项。为此,我们特别提供波幅分析方法和波幅分析参考表给投资者作为参考。

      经过历史统计,我们发现欧元/美元10年来的平均每日波幅基本稳定在100点左右,然后再对样本进行正态统计分析,发现约2/3的单日波幅汇集在70-130点范围之内。这就指示我们在做日内操作时主要预期的日内高低点差距在这个范围左右。

      而市场在运行过程中还会出现这个范围之外的小波幅和大波幅,根据对历史数据的统计,我们将单日60点以内的波幅定义为极小波幅日,将单日160以上的波幅定义为极大波幅日。

      我们这里做的波幅分析主要是对极小波幅日出现后进行分析,规律:当市场连续出现极小波幅日时,接下来极容易出现极大波幅日。

      这个时候结合形态进行进一步判断:

      1、如果连续出现3日或更长的极小波幅日保持区间震荡形态,则预示着市场面临突破,一旦突破区间震荡关键阻力位,很可能爆发连续的单边极大波幅日。

      2、如果连续出现3日或更长的极小波幅日保持同向运行,这个时候需要区分出现在趋势的起始阶段还是末端,或者是区分该段走势为次要趋势还是主要趋势。

      大部分情况下,

      当出现在趋势的起始阶段时,引发的极大波幅日方向更大可能性是顺势;

      当出现在趋势的末端时,引发的极大波幅日方向更大可能性是逆势;

      当出现在次要趋势时,引发的极大波幅日方向则更大可能性是顺应主要趋势方向的。

      提醒:为了提高对方向把握的准确性,投资者还可进一步根据具体的运行形态进行辨别,比如是否是中继形态,是否是反转形态等。

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    Default

    当出现在趋势的起始阶段时,引发的极大波幅日方向更大可能性是顺势

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