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Thread: [转帖]交易和成功风险管理的箴言

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    Default [转帖]交易和成功风险管理的箴言

    理查 J. 费尔兹/编撰 李玫 郑学勤/译


     期货日报编者按 理查 J. 费尔兹 (Richard J. Feltes) 是美国瑞富投资集团公司(REFCO)的商品研究副总裁兼粮食、菜籽油高级分析师。他于1970年毕业于伊利诺斯大学农业专业,1972年获得南伊利诺斯大学MBA学位,1973年就职于大陆谷物公司(Conti Commodity Services),1984年进入REFCO公司。


     费尔兹以通过数据预测农产品的价格而著称。他所管理的REFCO全球研究网是期货业实时分析的重要消息来源之一。REFCO公司吸引大量跨国食品公司成为其客户的原因之一应归功于费尔兹在谷物价格上富有洞察力的分析。

     在大商所成立十周年之际,费尔兹应邀访问了大商所。为此次中国之行,他特意将多年来的期货从业经验总结成125条箴言,作为礼物送给中国投资者。经作者本人同意,期货日报从今天开始对其进行连载。
     1. Plan your trades and trade your plans.
      为你的交易做好计划;按你的计划执行交易。


     2. Hope and fear are the two greatest enemies of speculators.


        期冀和恐惧是投机者两个最大的敌人。


      3. Keep records of your trading results.

        对你的交易结果做好纪录。


    4. Maintain a positive attitude no matter how much you lose.
      不管你输了多少,保持一个积极的态度。


      5. Avoid overconfidenceit could be your greatest enemy.
      不要过分自信它会成为你最大的仇敌。


      6. Continually set higher trading goals.
      不断设定更高的交易目标。


      7. Stops are the key to success for many traderslimit your losses!

        设定止损是很多交易者成功的关键限制你的亏损!

        8. The most successful traders are those that trade long term.

      最成功的交易商是做长线交易的交易商。

      9. Successful traders buy into bad news & sell into good news.
       成功的交易者在坏消息时买,在好消息时卖。


       10. The successful trader is not afraid to buy high & sell low.

        成功的交易者不怕在高位时买进,在低位时卖出。

      11. Successful traders have a well scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
        成功的交易者有效地规划时间来进行市场研究。


        12. Successful traders set profit objectives for each trade they enter.
        成功的交易者为他们所做的每一笔交易都设定有赢利目标。

      13. Do not collect the opinions of others before entering tradesfacts are pricelessopinions are worthless. In short successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.

        不要在还没进入交易以前就到处征求意见事实价值无穷、意见一文不值。简单地说,成功的交易者不为别人的意见所左右。

     14. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
      不断地为耐心、毅力、决断和理性的行为作努力。


        15. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.     决不要因为失去耐心而退出市场,也决不要因为迫不及待而进入市场。



        16. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
       进出市场不要过于频繁。



    17. The most profitable trading tool is simply following the trend.
        最佳的赢利方法就是跟随趋势。



        18. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to a definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.


       除非有充分的理由,不要改变你在市场里的头寸。每做一手交易时,你都要有可以依据的理由或者明确的计划;此后,除非有明确的趋势改变的迹象,不要退出。


        19. Losses make the speculator studiousnot profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
    赔钱不能赢利,但能使投机者细心钻研。抓住每一次赔钱的机会,改进你对市场行为的了解。


        20. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the success equation.
      在投机里最难的任务不是预测,而是自我控制。成功的交易是艰难和令人烦恼的交易。在成功的等式里,你是最重要的因素。


        21. The basic substance of price change is human emotion. Panic, fear, greed, insecurity, anxiety, stress, and uncertainty are the primary sources of short-term price change.

        价格变化的基本要素是人的情感。慌乱、恐惧、贪婪、不安全感、担心、压力和犹豫不定,这些是短期价格变动的主要根源。

        22. Bullish consensus is typically at its high when the market is at a top. Also there are few bulls at major bottoms.
     典型地说,当市场在顶部时,异口同声地看多的人最多;在重大的底部时,很少有人持牛市的观点。

      23. Watch the spreads i.e., don^t be bullish if inverses are narrowing.
        注意多空套做。也就是说,如果逆差在减小,不要看多。

        24. Remember that a bear market will give up in one month what a bull market has taken 3 months to build.
        记住,一个月的熊市能让你失去在三个月的牛市中所得到的。


        25. Identify the dominant factor in each commodity. Be prepared to redefine this factor as conditions change.

        找到每一种商品期货里的决定性因素。随着情况的变化,随时准备重新判定着一因素。

      26. Expand your sources for market info but limit your sources for market opinion.

        扩充你的市场信息来源;限制你的市场意见来源。


        27. Dont ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.


      永远不要让一场大赢的交易转变为输家。如果市场使你的赢利从最高处下滑了20%,止损出市。



        28. It is never possible to know everything about anything. A commodity trader is in constant danger.


       没有人能够做到万事皆知。从事期货交易总要面临危险。

        29. Successful trading requires four things. Knowledge, disciplined courage, money, and the energy to merge the first 3 properly.
       交易要具备四大要素才能成功:知识、控制得当的勇气、金钱以及将这三者妥善结合在一起的精力。


       30. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable. .u;y-G,X)W
        预见到会有亏损,雍容大度地接受亏损。那些对亏损苦思冥想的人总是失去下一个机会,而下一个机会很可能是个赢利的机会。


    31. The one essential ingredient to making money with money and keeping it is having an organized effort. bbs.fxbest.com!b3n"M:E'k:T
        用钱来挣钱以及保住钱的一个根本要素是做事要有板有眼。



        32. Unless you progress, you go backwards. Once you complete a trading goal it is crucial that you immediately set a new goal.
       不进则退。要紧的是一旦实现了一个交易目标,你应该立刻设定一个新的目标。


        33. The art of concentration can help you become a great trader. In other words, set aside time to think, plan, meditate, investigate, research, analyze, evaluate and select your trades carefully. ;x0r7m)~6h!w6{)T/u+R
        专心致志的艺术能够帮助你成为一个杰出的交易者。也就是说,安排出时间来仔细地思考、计划、琢磨、调查、研究、分析、衡量和选择你的交易。



        34. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market. bbs.fxbest.com1X$I#C$f/i#u l&l6a
        把你的盈利一分为二,决不拿其中的百分之五十以上再到市场上去冒险。


        35. The key to successful trading is in knowing yourself and in knowing your stress point. 'W!l(k1h1U%F0{'h"G
        成功交易的关键是了解你自己以及知道你自己对压力的承受能力。

        36. The real difference between winners and losers is not so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
    !c,z!|!{:M/P+A&\*H    成功者和失败者之间的真正区别,与其说是天生的能力,还不如说是在避免错误中表现的有素的训练。

      37. The greatest risk for a commodity trader is to rely on hope alone. Never substitute hope for facts. The greatest loss is loss of self-confidence.
    4_+B%h-h)h    期货交易商的最大的错误就是把一切都寄托在希望上。永远不要用希望来取代事实。自信心的失落是最大的亏损。


        38. You cannot perform very well for very long with your shoes nailed to the floor. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead. bbs.fxbest.com.I)o+E%n$b6D'z"g
        你不可能在原地不动而持久地表现出色。交易就像击剑,不是快速运动,就是身败剑下。

        39. Remember Mark Twain: only 10% of the people think. 10% think they think. The other 80% would rather die than think. 金汇通论坛1R$a0X*M0f"u9p4C*|
        记住马克土温说的:只有百分之十的人思考,百分之十的人认为他们思考,其余百分之八十的人宁死也不愿思考。


        40. The man who goes to the top as a commodity trader does not do as he pleases. He has trained himself to choose correctly between the two freedoms: the freedom to do as he pleases, and the freedom to do what he must do. "]%T8[ U)A
        期货交易高手做事不是随心所欲。他把自己训练得知道怎样在两种自由中作正确的选择:随心所欲的自由和非做不可的自由。



    41. Since there is always the possibility of surprise in thin, dead markets, less capital should be risked there than in markets which are broad and moving.


      因为在窄小的、停滞的市场里总有出乎意料的可能,在这样的市场里应该比在宽广的、运动的市场里投入较少的资本来承担风险。



        42. Limit the risk in any one trade to a maximum of 10% and the risk in all open trades to a maximum of 25% of trading capital. (risk = pct of available capital). Determine this each day, adding profits and subtracting losses in open trades, and combine this net figure with your trading capital. bbs.fxbest.com$`%R,U8N%W)D-a
        将你每一手交易的风险控制在百分之十以内。将你所有持仓的交易的总风险控制在最多不超过交易资本的百分之二十五(风险=可用资本的百分比)。每天对此加以计算,在持仓交易中加上盈利,减去亏损,再把这一数字同你的交易资本结合起来。


        43. It does not take much capital to trade a market if one has knowledge and understanding. St. Paul said, when I am weak I am strong.

     如果你懂得和理解一个市场,做交易并不需要很多资本。圣保尔说过,我在软弱时则强壮。

    44. Speech may be silver but Silence is Golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk.
     言谈可能是银子,可沉默是金子。有点金术的交易商稀于言谈。

        45. Common trading errors include: A) trading without good reasons. B) trading on hope rather than facts. C) overloading without regard for capital.

       常见的交易错误包括:A、理由不充分的交易;B、基于希望多于事实的交易;C、与资本不相称的超量交易。


        46. I like the short side of the market because there is usually less company. The mob is usually wrong. It is usually long.
      我喜欢市场看空的一边,因为通常这里人要少一些。蜂拥之众通常是错的,它通常是看多。

       47. A fatal mistake made by the fundamental trader is to take small profits. This is the result of limited vision ??? extremes always seem silly to men of so called good judgment.


    初学交易的人的一个致命的错误是稍有赢利就出手。这是目光短浅的结果对所谓的明智的人来说,走极端总是愚蠢的。


    48. Trade only when you have a good reason on an appraisal of fundamentals and using chart action for confirmation and timing of entry and exit.


       只有当你根据基本面的分析作出估价,运用图表行为加以证实,并策划好入市和出市的时间,只有当这些加在一起为你提供了充足的理由时,再做交易。

        49. Believe that the big one is possible be there when it starts. Have the gross power to act, be rested mentally and physically, and finally let your profits run and cut your losses quickly.



        相信大的未必不可能一旦大的发生了,不至于手忙脚乱。让综合的力量自己行动,精神上和肉体上都休息充分,最终让你的利润滚动,迅速地砍掉你的损失。


      50. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.


     大胆做梦,敢于想象。很少有人把目标设得过高。一个人从早到晚在思考什么,他最终就变成什么。

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    在投机里最难的任务不是预测,而是自我控制

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    赢的时候不要过分自信

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    Keep records of your trading results.

        对你的交易结果做好纪录

    这点我同意,最近就是把交易做了些记录,发现对整个交易过程以及后面可能的交易居然有了一丝模模糊糊的连系认知

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    说的很是具体,也很精彩,深入浅出,看了楼主的贴子之后,豁然明了,多谢。

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    市场是无法预测的,但是有序

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