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Thread: 掌握数据分析基本面

  1. #1
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    Default 掌握数据分析基本面

    基本面分析者认为货币的强弱反映该国经济状况的好坏,其强弱虽可能受其他非经济因素的干扰而有暂时的波动,或产生与经济体质相反的走势,但就长期而言,其价位终将回归到与经济状况相称的地步。至于-国经济状况的好坏应如何衡量,则又得采取相对比较的方式。例如美国1996年度的经济增长率估计可达3%,就基本面分析者眼中而言,这一数据并不能判断美元应该走强或走弱,必须将之与前-年度的经济增长率做比较,并与德国、日本等主要国家的经济增长率相比较。如果前一年度美国的经济增长率为2%,而1996年度德国、日本的经济增长率约在1.5%的水准,则这个3%的数据提供给基本面分析者的想法是:美国的经济日渐好转,其经济增长状况较德、日两国为佳,美元对马克或日元应相对走强,以反映其经济实力。基本面分析者即据此作为外汇买卖决策的指标,买入美元,卖出日元、马克。

      反映一个经济状况的数据,即一般所称的经济指标,除了经济增长率外,林林总总,包括甚多,像贸易赤字、预算赤字、货币供给量、消费者物价指数(零售物价指数)、生产者物价指数(趸售物价指数)、失业率、房屋开工率、领先指标等。作为基本面分析者投注的焦点,各数据会由政府相关部门定期公布,这类型的投资人皆会收集分析各数据,进一步分析比较,作为判定各倾向未来走势的根据。

      这类的分析预测是否正确?成效如何?可以看看国际投资者,他们广设经济研究部门,负责分析各主要国家的经济状况。而在美国等政府机构发表重要经济指标前,市场上的投资人会先结清外汇部位或降低外汇部位,外汇市场呈现如临大敌的气氛,银行交易员则彻夜守候。从经济指标发表后的众生相,可知基本面分析在外汇市场确确实实具备举足轻重的影响力。

      而经济指标发表后,货币走势受其影响,强者可能更强,也可能转弱;弱者可能更弱,抑或转强,在显示经济指标为市场驱动者(Marketmover)的真实写照,如此具有影响力的因素,参与外汇投资者如何能漠视它?所以不论基本分析预测货币市场未来走势的正确性如何,长久以来,基本面分析确已成为市场参与者投资决策的圭臬。

  2. #2
    Elder Analyst
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    Default

    基本面分析反应比较慢

  3. #3
    Elder Analyst
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    Default

    弱者可能更弱

  4. #4
    Bullish
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    作为判定各倾向未来走势的根据

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