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Thread: 阻力线的原理与应用2

  1. #1
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    Default 阻力线的原理与应用2

    在K线图上,只要最高价位在同一微小区间出现多次,则连接两个相同最高价位并延长即形成一阻力线,它形象地描述了货币在某一价位区间供应大于需求的不平衡状态。当交易价位上升至这一区间时,因卖气大增,而买方又不愿追高,故价位表现为遇阻回档向下。其内在实质是:

      与支撑线产生于成交密集区一样,阻力线同样出现于成交密集区。因为在这一区间有较大的累积成交量,当交易价位已在该密集区间以下时,说明已有大量的浮动亏损面,即套牢者。因此当行情由下向上回升,迫近阻力线时,对前景看坏者急于解套平仓或获利回吐,故大量抛盘涌出,货币的供应量放大。对前景看好者可分为两类:一类是短线看好,因顾忌价位已高,期望待价位回档再建仓,故跟进犹豫;另一类是中长线看好,逢低便吸。前者是不坚定的需求方,且随时会受空方打压而丧失信心,由多翻空加盟供应方;后者是坚定的需求方,虽有可能顶破阻力线,但若势单力薄,即无大成交量配合,交易价位将重回阻力线以下。故此时货币的需求量相对较小,反复多次阻力线便自然形成,并且延续时间越长,阻力越难以突破。当行情由下向上回升,迫近阻力线时,若能有利多消息助威,且交易价位破阻力后,有成交量放大配合,则阻力线被有效突破,交易价位上一台阶,该阻力线即成了后市的支撑线。
      
    阻力线同样也并不仅仅产生于成交密集区。当行情上升至原下跌波的50%或0.618时会出现停滞现象,并作回档调整,该停留之处即为广大投资者的又一心理阻力线。此外,阶段性的最高价位也往往是投资者难以突破的心理阻力战。

      因为支撑线与阻力线均形成于成交密集区,所以同一成交密集区既是行情由下向上攀升的阻力区,又是行情由上向下滑落的支撑区。当成交密集区被突破,在行情上升过程中,一般伴随有高换手率,阻力线变换为支撑线;若有特大利多消息刺激,成交密集区被轻易突破,即骤然跳空,那么获利回吐压力增大,继续上行将面临考验,多头态势往往前功尽弃。在行情下降过程中,换手率一般不明显增大,旦有效突破,则支撑线变换为阻力线。

      在利用阻力线进行汇市分析时应注意以下几点:

      (1)下跌趋势出现反弹,若K线之阳线较先前阴线为弱,尤其在接近阻力价位时,成交量无法放大,而后阴线迅速吃掉阳线,汇价再度下跌,这是强烈的阻力。

      (2)下跌趋势出现强力反弹,阳线频频出现,多头实力坚强,即使在阻力线附近略作回档,但换手积极,则汇价必可突破阻力线,结束下跌走势。

      (3)在阻力线附近经过一段时间的盘挡后,出现长阴线,阻力线自然有效。

      (4)在阻力线附近经过.一段时间的盘档后,出现一根长阳线向上突破,成交量增加,低档接手有人,激励买方,汇价将再升一段。

      (5)汇价由下向上突破阻力线,若成交量配合放大,说明阻力线被有效突破,行情将由下降趋势转换为上升趋势。

      一般地说,在下降大趋势中,出现中级上升趋势之后,如若行情突破中级上升趋势的阻力线,则说明下降大趋势已结束;在中级下降趋势中,出现次级上升趋势后,如若行情突破次级上升趋势的阻力线,则说明中级下降趋势已结束,将依原上升大趋势继续上行。

      (6)汇价由下向上冲刺阻力线,但未能突破而调头回落,则可能出现一段新的下跌行情,丛时无论盈亏,都应及时了结退场。

      (7)当汇价由下向上冲击阻力线,成交量大增,则应及时做多;若虽破阻力线,但成交量未放出,则应观望,很有可能是上冲乏力、受阻回落的假突破,不能贸然跟进。

      (8)当汇价由下向上突破阻力线,若成交量不见大增,可待其回落,若回落也不见量放出,则可考虑做多;若不回落,只要能确认突破阻力有效,再做多仍能获利,这是因为阻力线被有效击破,一般回有一段行情。

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    要小心假突破

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    若成交量配合放大,说明阻力线被有效突破

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    同一成交密集区是行情由下向上攀升的阻力区

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