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Thread: 如何判断汇率走向?

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    Default 如何判断汇率走向?

    对于一个开放经济而言,汇率是一个至关重要的经济变量。那么,如何对汇率走势做出较为理性的判断并以此为依据进行外汇投资决策呢?
      
    第一,一国的社会制度和经济结构背景的相对变动情况会影响汇率的长期变化,是决定长期汇率变动趋势的基本因素。这些基本因素主要包括经济增长状况的差异程度、利率水平的差异程度、资本市场运行状况的差异程度及其对国际资本流向的导向作用的差异程度(即国际资本净流量的差异程度)。对上述基本因素的分析和把握就基本上构成了对一种货币汇率变动趋势的基本面分析。具体而言,对一种货币的基本面分析应重点关注该国在特定时期公布的各种经济指标(如gdp增长率、通货膨胀率、失业率、消费者信心指数、消费价格指数(cpi)、生产价格指数(ppi)、经济景气指数(ifo)等),因为一定时期的经济指标客观地反映了一国在特定时期的经济运行状况。
      
    第二,市场预期将会对即期汇率的变动产生重大影响。而影响市场预期的因素除上述基本因素外,还包括政治因素(即一国的政局稳定情况及政府的更迭对经济运行产生的影响)、宏观经济政策的变化情况及即期经济运行状况可能对远期经济运行的影响等。对各种可获得的信息的系统归纳整理所得出结论,可作为投资者对即期汇率走向进行理性判断的重要依据。
      
    第三,国际资本流动将对汇率造成重大冲击。在一国经常项目帐户盈亏状况既定的情况下,资本及金融帐户的顺差或逆差状况将直接影响着一国的国际收支状况。因此,分析一国在特定时期资本市场的外资流入状况对于判断一种货币的即期汇率变动方向具有重要意义。
      
    第四,投机性的交易会影响到即期汇率的变动。对于汇率走向的判断也应借助于一些传统的技术分析工具,以把握外汇市场的运行节奏。

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    就是低买高卖

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    对汇率走势做出较为理性的判断对操作是重要的

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    市场预期将会对即期汇率的变动产生重大影响。

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    短期预测比较好,长期预测难

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    投资者对市场的心理期望是很重要的,也是最难预测的

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    不可预测,只能顺势

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    看日线,周线方向

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    市场预期将会对即期汇率的变动产生重大影响。而影响市场预期的因素除上述基本因素外,还包括政治因素

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