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Thread: 经典的布林带boll

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    Default 经典的布林带boll

    布林带由布林格发明,是各种投资市场广泛运用的路径分析指标。在布林格发明布林带之前,类似的路径分析指标已经在金融市场中使用了,后来布林格将这种方法改进并系统化了。

    布林带的设定方法比较简单,一般中轨取一个中期的移 动平均线,默认参数为20天,上轨道的取值为移 动平均线加上2倍的标准差,下轨道的取值为移 动平均线减去2倍的标准差。标准差在投资中是描述风险的一个量,2倍标准差的布林带表示汇价波动在布林带之内的概率超过95.44%。标准差的含义和计算公式在所有统计学教材和注册会计师的《财务管理》教材中都有论述,有兴趣的投资者可以查阅

    笔者认为布林格本人重要贡献不是其发明的布林带指标,而是他在使用布林带指标时着重强调了相对高低的概念,并在分析时贯彻了这一思想。虽然此前各种指标的使用中老练的投资者已经意识到高低的位置都是相对的,但是很少有人笃信并且认真实践了这一思想。

    布林带还有一些基本的使用原则:

    1.布林带带宽紧紧收窄时,是行情将会选择突破方向的信号。在使用这一方法时投资者务必谨慎,因为这时汇价往往会出现假突破,投资者要等突破方向明确,布林带带宽放大时再介入

    2.布林带带宽大幅放大达到6个月以来的最大值,这时候行情就有转向的风险。

    3.当上轨继续放大,而下轨开始收敛,或者相反的情况,都是行情转势的先兆。

    实战案例如何判断行情转向

    据布林格本人的观点,布林带的作用之一是在行情上涨过程中发现什么时候汇价走势可能转势,布林格提到了几种方法,基本都是国内已经广为接受和采用的方法了。但是其中有一种方法是国内投资者还不太熟悉的方法,在此介绍一下。

    在行情上涨的过程中,如果走势是单边上扬的格局,投资者往往难以发现行情反转的先兆。布林格认为,如果在单边势中,布林带上轨一直放大,而布林带下轨开始收敛,也就是下轨由向下运动改为向上运动,则可以认为行情可能会反转。

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    Default

    布林带还有一些基本的使用原则

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