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Thread: 若供应无碍 油价难以守稳100美元

  1. #1
    zhangyh
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    Default 若供应无碍 油价难以守稳100美元

    原油价格的狂飚已引起了各方的高度关注,发达国家首脑纷纷表示,将在下周召开的八国集团(G8)能源部长会议上讨论油价对经济的影响。 近日,由于市场将焦点由原油的供应面转向需求面,担心全球经济放缓削弱需求,在连续刷新纪录高点后,原油价格震荡下跌。不过,不少分析师认为,油价中长期涨势不变,目标指向200美元/桶。 但是,持相反观点的达拉斯联储的研究人员近日发表文章指出,油价未来走势将取决于近年来一直影响市场的四大因素,即全球需求、未来市场紧张状况的预期、美元价值以及市场对供应中断的担忧。如果不发生供应中断,油价很难在未来十年维持在100美元/桶上方。 达拉斯联储研究人员Stephen Brown、Raghav Virmani和Richard Alm在该行经济月刊中指出,如果上述影响因素都继续按照目前的方向发展,则可能推动油价进一步走高;但如果其中一个或多个因素发生变化,则可能会在一定程度上缓解价格压力。 文章指出,关键问题是新能源的开发以及经济普遍好转情况下美元的回升。文章称,对这些非传统资源的大力开发可能意味著着油价很难维持在每桶70美元上方。不过,其他因素导致的油价下跌可能会抑制对非传统资源的进一步开发。 不少机构分析师以及OPEC官员均认为,原油价格的飙升主要受投机因素、美元贬值推动,而非供需面失衡所致。 但美联储辩解称,导致包括石油在内的大宗商品价格全线飙升的原因是中国和印度经济增长带来的基本需求。

  2. #2
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    油价中长期涨势不变,目标指向200美元/桶。

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