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Thread: 鹤眼看均线

  1. #1
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    Default 鹤眼看均线

    首先声明两点:
    1、野鹤做单不以均线做为交易信号
    2、同时野鹤深信:只要有良好的风险控制机制,和严格的执行纪律,任何简单的系统都能获取长期稳定的回报,其中均线是非常优秀的一个工具。

    均线的最大问题就是滞后,尤其是当行情发生比较突然的转折的时候,等到长短均线相交,价位已经在十万八千里以外了,此点是初学者的普遍烦恼。

    由于均线生成公式是一样的,唯一的不同是天数上面的差异,所以,我认为,均线存在自我验证的问题。

    30天均线和5天均线中都包含最后五天的收盘价,关系就像父亲(30天)和儿子(5天)身上,都有爷爷(收盘价)的特征一样,而且父亲和儿子之间也很像。

    所以首先,野鹤认为,如果要用均线,用一条要好过用多条。

    其次,用长期点的好过用短期的。多长呢?品种不同,要稍做调整。

    第三,由于商品期货的换月问题,国内没有像伦敦铜那样的连续合约,因此,建议有兴趣的朋友自己动手编制单个商品的整体价格走势(据我所知,已经有不少人这样做了)。这样产生出来的均线,是整个商品(比如大豆)的整体走势,受单个月份的影响相对较少。

    最后,如何使用一条均线做出入市,举个简单的例子:
    假设我使用60天线(整体商品的均线)来跟踪大豆,那么:
    1、在均线上方我永远只做多,在均线下方我永远只做空
    2、收盘价低于均线,做空主力合约,反之,做多
    3、收盘价收到均线另一侧,平仓反手

    上面这个简单的交易系统主要存在的问题是,如果是盘整时期,进出比较多,小额损失不断(也会有小额赢利),交易成本增加,并且永远有持仓,之所以要用周期长一点的均线,也是为了减少来回的交易。
    但是同时,它绝不会丢掉任何一个大的行情,那是它赚大钱的时候,这正是所有趋势跟踪系统的最大优势所在。

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    Default


    又是一个以均线为核心的系统
    个人认为
    什么时候抛弃了均线什么时候就飞跃了

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    Default

    良好的风险控制机制

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