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Thread: 全球石油公司预期油价将走高,许多项目因此变得可行

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    Default 全球石油公司预期油价将走高,许多项目因此变得可行

    石油公司在预期油价将高涨的前提下规划未来发展,许多项目变得可行,这暗示长期来看油价的"底线"正在向上移动.

    BP和皇家荷兰/壳牌石油集团(Royal Dutch Shell)等公司已经小幅上调规划未来图景时采用的"基准"油价.周二国际油价一度创下每桶近130美元的纪录高位.

    Seymour Pierce石油分析师Peter Hitchens说,"他们开始逐渐上调标准.BP已经开始行动,(如今)采用的是每桶60美元,而壳牌的一定会更高,因成本也在增加."BP执行长Tony Hayward是在2月27日策略会议上公布该数字的.

    而就在几年前,企业还假设长期油价大约会在25美元.

    法国巴黎银行石油分析师Harry Tchilinguirian说,"石油企业的'基准'油价往往非常保守,'基准'上移通常暗示着在新项目的整个生命周期,油价都会保持走高的态势."

    石油企业成本上升是因为原材料和服务的价格上涨,其中尤以钢铁和钻探设备为最.而在新增加的原油供应中,高成本的非传统石油所占比例将越来越高,例如从油砂中提炼的石油.

    意大利石油企业Eni SpA周一和刚果共和国签署协议,将利用后者的油砂资源提炼石油.

    分析师表示,这样的冒险就需要提高油价才能赚钱,但也意味着在局势动荡的中东地区以外,还有储藏丰富的其他地区可供外资开发.

    巴克莱石油分析师Kevin Norrish称,"企业需要非常高的油价才能保证此类项目运转,肯定会在每桶85美元以上."


    **在60美元处有支撑**

    1998年国际油价暴跌至每桶10美元让石油公司震惊,之后它们上调"基准"价格的步伐就一直滞后于油价升势.

    BP执行长Hayward表示,油价在过去五年中的趋势一直是稳步上行,看起来价格可能在较以往更高的水准处获得支撑.

    价格预期上升让许多以往不可行的项目变得有吸引力.壳牌已经在非传统石油上投资了数以十亿计美元资金,在加拿大通过油砂提炼石油,在卡塔尔修建工厂将天然气转化成液态燃料.

    BP在前任执行长John Browne掌控下时曾避开油砂项目,但去年稍晚Hayward上台后又开始转变.但即使现在,该公司的"基准"价格也低于期货市场投资者的预期.2016年12月交割的美国原油期货价格周一创出130.40美元的纪录高点.

    "企业预期长期来看油价会比当前价格低很多,预计这种看法不会转变.这不会让企业真正大举发力."

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    要你在压力下仍能做出正确的行为就行。尽可能保住你的位置,只要你还在外汇市场中,你就总有赚钱的机会。面对损失,要像一个真正的男人一样面对它,而不是逃避,这是另一层面上的勇气。对于一个超短线交易者,赚钱了,他要走,不赚,他也要走,赔了,他更要走。永不持有任何亏损的仓位,永远在赚钱的仓位上加码,这在一定意义上说,是交易的全部真谛。

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