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Thread: 美元贬值:影响到底有多深?

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    Default 美元贬值:影响到底有多深?

    [日期:2008年04月23日 13:10] 来源:中国资金管理网 作者:王奇
    Yahoo!Stat.当今世界经济关注的焦点莫过于次贷危机和美元贬值,次贷危机加剧世界金融市场的动荡,美元贬值则以一种更为鬼秘的方式向全世界输出通胀。



    美元贬值何时见底?,这是温家宝总理在今年两会闭幕后回答记者提问时提出的问题,这个问题恰如其分地点到了现今国际金融风云变幻中的关键。美元持续贬值正在深刻影响着全球,也正在把一场新的金融风险带给世界经济。



    惨烈下跌的美元



      从2002年初的高点到现在,美元指数的最大跌幅超过了40%,其间虽有反弹,但未能改变美元贬值的趋势。在持续大幅贬值后,美元丧失了方向感。

      

    今年第一季度,欧元对美元上涨7.6%,为2004年以来的最大涨幅;美元对日元下跌10.8%,为近10年来之最;美元指数则下跌了6.5%,为2004年第四季度以来的最差表现。



      国际清算银行的数据显示,由包括52种货币的一篮子汇率经过通胀调整后折算而来。2007年7月至2008年2月,美元实际有效汇率由88.73点跌至83.61点,8个月的贬值幅度为5.77%,近一个季度和一个月的贬值幅度则分别为0.5%和0.87%。



    其他数据也证明美元正在遭到市场抛售。国际货币基金组织最近表示,截至去年末,各国和各大央行的全部外汇储备中美元所占份额为63.9%,接近历史最低,外汇储备的多元化是重要原因。



      全球最大的外汇交易商德意志银行最近调降了对美元的预期值。该行认为,全球信贷市场亏损扩大至2000亿美元之上,美国经济也日益下滑,将促使美元更加虚弱,预计欧元对美元第二季度将上涨至1.60,刷新历史新高。



      纽约银行梅隆公司外汇策略分析师Michael Woolfolk表示了类似的观点:美元作为全球金融系统独一无二的货币角色正开始失去分量,预计美元今年将维持下跌势头。

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