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Thread: 欧元区经济增长有可能停滞

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    Default 欧元区经济增长有可能停滞

    [日期:2008年05月24日 08:47]
    给我留言 周五公布的数据显示,欧元区5月经济活动放缓至五年来最低水平,其中,服务业活动急剧放缓。经济学家据此表示,欧元区经济放缓依然主要集中在服务业,但有迹象表明,其他领域也被波及,预计该地区经济扩张将进一步减缓,并有可能接近停滞。



    NTC Economics编制的数据显示,欧元区5月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从51.9降至51.1,为2003年7月来最低水平。



    其中,服务业PMI从4月的52.0降至50.6,为四年半来最低水平;制造业PMI从50.7降至50.5。



    分项指标显示,欧元区5月新商业指数从51.7降至50.5,服务业就业指数从52.9降至51.7,为2005年11月来最低水平,输入物价指数仅从63.5略微降至63.4,输出物价指数从53.5升至53.8,商业预期指数从58.7降至56.1,为2001年11月以来最低水平。



    CAPITAL ECONOMICS欧洲经济学家BEN MAY表示,从PMI数据可以推断出,欧元区第二季度经济活动将显著放缓。从各个国家层面而言,面对全球经济扩张的减速与强势欧元,德国经济表现出了良好的弹性,而令人担忧的是,法国综合PMI继续下滑, 这说明南欧的经济放缓可能已经开始蔓延。



    荷兰银行(ABN AMRO)驻伦敦经济学家DARIO PERKINS表示,总体而言,上述数据表明欧元区第二季度经济表现疲软,若这种情况持续,欧元区经济增长将接近停滞。



    PERKINS称,考虑到巨大通胀压力,上述数据不会引发欧洲央行降息,但的确增加了央行的困境。



    UNICREDIT MIB经济学家MARCO VALLI表示,考虑到金融业已经出现改善,服务业PMI数据大幅下降非常意外,这说明欧元区经济放缓已经扩散到范围更广的层面。同时,预计未来几个月制造业方面难以改善,就业指数下滑将是该地区经济全面放缓的序曲。



    VALLI补充指出,法国经济扩张正在急剧减速,预计从第二季度至2009年末,欧元区经济增长都将低于趋势水平。

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