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Thread: 市场行为包容一切

  1. #1
    Piplet
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    Default 市场行为包容一切

    包容性是技术分析的基石。技术分析者认为,能够影响股价的任何因素经济的、政策的、心理的等等实际上都反映到价格及其成交量上了。

    技术派研究市场运动的结果,基本派则追究其前因。技术派当然知道市场涨落肯定有原因,但他们认为这些原因对于分析预测无关痛痒。既然基本面信息已经反映在价格之中,那么再研究它们就多余了。图表分析抄了基本分析的近道,反过来却不然。

    许多技术分析者不愿意接受多余的信息,因为它们有可能影响或干扰他们研读图表的工作。图表派元老约翰迈吉(John Magee,《股市趋势技术分析》的作者)就是工作在真空之中的典型人物。他在麻州春田市的一间小办公室里工作,连窗户都用木板钉上,以防外界干扰。他曾说过:当我走进这间办公室,就把世界留在外面了,我只专心于研究我的图型。这个房间不论是在大风雪或是6月里月色皎洁的夜晚都一样。在这里,我不会对客户不尽职,看见太阳出来就说买进,看见下雨就说卖出。

    技术派认为,在出入市具体时机的选择方面,技术分析更有前瞻性和可操作性。当一个重要的市场转折初露端倪时,市场常常表现得颇为奇特,从基本面上找不到理由。而技术派此时却比较自信,当大众常识同市场转变牛头不对马嘴时,也能够众人皆醉而我独醒,应付自如。他们乐于领先一步,当少数派,因为他们明白,个中原因迟早会大白于天下,不过那肯定是事后诸葛亮,他们既不愿意也没必要坐等,丧失良机。

  2. #2
    Elder Analyst
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    Default

    潜心研究 修行养心

  3. #3
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    Default

    技术分析更有前瞻性和可操作性

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