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Thread: 美消费信心将大幅降低

  1. #1
    Piplet
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    Default 美消费信心将大幅降低

    美联储一连串的减息举动,效果不佳。次贷危机的核心问题,不是银行没有钱,而是银行没有信心将钱贷出;不是政策利率偏高,而是贷款利率由于风险意识变化而抽高。美联储能做的不过是将资金交给银行,但是如果银行不将资金贷给有需要的企业和个人,经济并未因此受惠。同时就业市场持续恶化,不仅失业上升,工时和工资都在下降,劳工的整体收入出现倒退。更重要的是,当一个过去有工作、有稳定收入的优质工人面临失业时,他的按揭也变成次贷,他的信用卡、汽车贷款随时可以成为坏账。

      Hanson则认为,美国消费信心在大幅降低,一个早期预警信号可能是机动车销售的明显萎缩,这一下跌可能反映了愈加紧缩的消费者贷款以及更高的燃料价格,这在未来几个月里可能会溢出到其他的支出类别。

      鉴于预期房价不会在2009年底前触底,来自房产市场的财富效应也将可能随着时间的推移而继续对消费者产生负面影响。而信贷收紧则会扩大正在不断萎缩的房产和劳动力市场的负面后果

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    Elder Analyst
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    Default

    刺激经济不能一蹴而就

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