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Thread: AUD/USD Out look for all types of traders

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    Default AUD/USD Out look for all types of traders

    AUD/USD Weekly ( from 19th May to the end of the week) Outlook .

    AUD/USD's multi-week sideway trading finally finished last week and surged sharply to new 24 year high of 0.9559 and closed the week strongly. Initial bias remain on the upside this week as long as 0.9497 minor support holds. Break of 61.8% projection of 0.8512 to 0.9496 from 0.8953 at 0.9561 will encourage further rally towards next projection target of 100% at 0.9937. On the downside,below 0.9497 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But pullback should be contained well above 0.9291 support and bring rally resumption.

    In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, as long as short term rising trend line (0.7675 to 0.8512, now at 0.9154) holds, recent up trend should still be in force. Such rally is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still expected to extend further to next medium term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.8008 from 0.6773 at 1.0008 which overlaps with parity.

    However, the upside momentum since 0.7675 is still not convincing as seen in mild bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. A break below 0.9291 support will firstly argue that rise from 0.8953 has completed. Secondly, this will also argue that rally from 0.7015 has also completed with five waves up too. In other words, an important medium term top is in place and, deeper decline should then be seen at least to 0.8870 medium term resistance turned support.

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    Today's (19th May) Fundamental of AUD/USD


    AUDUSD Makes 24-Year High

    The AUDUSD rallied to a new 24-year high after breaking out over a down trending Gann angle at .9459, which had been holding the market down since April 23.

    Two main swing tops at .9510 and .9544 were also taken out in the rally.

    Commodity exports account for a large percentage of the Australian economy so the higher the crude moves, the more likely the uptrend is going to continue. Expect to see a comment from the Reserve Bank of Australia concerning a possible surprise rate hike to stem the currency volatility.

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    My technical analisis tells that AUD/USD falling. See just candles in 4 hours chart.I have added my favourit 5 EMA and 10 EMA. RSI and MACD also gives me sell signal in both 1 hour and 4 hours chart. I think if it breaks the 4 hour Pivot it will fall up to 0.9502 then more.Now I am waiting when it breaks 4 h pivot.

    Technically it's ok. But recent commodities price against my technical analysis. Dollar should stop. So if dollar falls against AUD. Short time trading (selling) would be wise.If by this time Gold and fall little bit then u can hold the position with protective stop loss.Happy trading.

    AUD/USD facing strong support @ 0.9526 which is 4 hours initial support. If it breaks short term can be triggered for at least 30 pips. lets see if it can break the support or rise breaking 0.9570. It so happens I hope a good rise atleast for 45 pips short term.
    Last edited by jinnah; 05-19-2008 at 08:11 AM.

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