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Thread: 希望与害怕的潜在冲突

  1. #1
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    Default 希望与害怕的潜在冲突

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    交易者不得不面对的众多心理问题之一,用正确或错误的术语来讲,是两种基本人性情感,即希望与害怕的潜在冲 突。

    交易者a追随主(看涨)趋势买入大豆期货,具有较高的帐面利润。但他在第一次反弹时就卖出了,他害怕如 果继续持有多头头寸而市场逆行看跌,那样就会损失其利润。

    交易者b,在另一方面,不顾主(看涨)趋势卖空大豆期货具有很些但有可能增加的帐面损失。他很可能持 有具有帐面损失的头寸,希望市场会逆转其主要看涨趋势(也许并不需要逆转,但至少在他以及象他一样的别人坚 持空头时,市场行情开始看跌)。在他满怀希望的同时,市场继续其主要看涨趋势而他的损失继续增 加。

    我们都经历了希望和害怕这两种主要的情感,只是方向正好错了180度。持有具有帐面利润的多头头寸的交 易者 A本应坚持自己的头寸,希望有利于他的行情变动会进一步在同一方向上变动、增加其利润。另一方面,对于持有 反趋势不盈利头寸的交易者 B而言,他应害怕不利的行市会继续(也常常确是如此)而损失会继续增加(这也常常会发生)。行市与天气有许 多相似之处,该是怎样就是怎样,人们对此无能为力。或者,正如马克吐温曾说过的:每个人都谈论天气,但 没有人对此做些什么。因此,如果天气看起来象要下雨,不管你喜欢与否,你都要穿上雨衣带上雨伞,因为天气 就是那样的。相似地,如果市场趋势看跌,你就卖空或站在一边;如果趋势看涨,你就买人或站在一边因为你 根本无力改变市场的基本趋势方向。你或者追市,或者遭受试图逆市而做的各种损失。

  2. #2
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    Default

    两种基本人性情感,即希望与 害怕的潜在冲 突

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    对冲如果赚钱 将是无风险套利

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