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Thread: 外汇知识(七)

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    Default 外汇知识(七)

    第二章 汇率的技术分析
    分析汇率的方法主要有两种:基础分析和技术分析。基础分析是对影响外汇汇率的基本因素进行分析,基本因素主要包括各国经济发展水平与状况,世界、地区与各国政治情况,市场预期等。技术分析是借助心理学、统计学等学科的研究方法和手段,通过对以往汇率的研究,预测出汇率的未来走势。
    第一节 理论和假设
    一、当今世界上研究汇率变化的经典理论
    主要有三个:英国学者葛逊的国际借贷说、瑞典经济学家卡塞尔的购买力平价说、英国著名经济学家凯恩斯的利率平价说。其中以利率平价说和购买力平价说对市场的影响最大。值得广大从事个人实盘外汇买卖客户注意的是,以上的学说都有许多前提和假设,理论色彩较重。

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    二、汇率技术分析的三个基本假设
    1. 汇率反应一切
    即经济、政治、心理预期等影响汇率的所有因素的变化都会真实而充分地反应在汇率上。这就犹如中医诊断中的“号脉”一样,一个人的身体状况和器官疾病都会通过脉搏节律、强度的变化反映出来,有经验的中医通过“号脉”就可以掌握人体健康的基本状况。汇率波动的曲线是影响汇率的基本因素变化的结果。
    2. 汇率是按照一定的趋势和规律变化的
    如果没有这个假设,所有的技术分析就显得那么无聊和滑稽。
    3.历史会重演
    技术分析是建立自对历史数据进行统计分析的基础之上的,通过研究和分析,总结出一定规律,形成一套完整的理论和方法并运用于实践,目的是用以前的规律来预测未来的趋势。

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    基础分析是对影响外汇汇率的基本因素进行分析

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    数据对外汇有很大影响 但是不持久

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