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Thread: 金价或进入短期巩固

  1. #1
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    Default 金价或进入短期巩固

    周三见美国联储局如预期般宣布减息四分一厘,联邦基金利率由2.25%下调至2.0%,贴现率由2.5%下调至2.25%。联储局在声明中指出,FOMC以8对2票通过调低联邦基金利率,其中Plosser与Fisher再度主张维持利率不变,贴现率的调降则全体一致通过;联储局指围绕通胀的不确性依然很高,核心通胀有所改善,但能源和商品价格上升令到通胀前景仍不明朗,预期未来数季通胀将趋于缓和;近期经济活动依然疲弱,家庭和企业开支进一步走软,金融市场依然承压,信贷紧缩和楼市下滑将拖累经济增长;不过货币政策的大幅放松以及流动性措施有助促进经济增长并减少风险,联储局将会继续关注经济和金融市场发展,必要时采取行动以推动经济增长。声明措辞有微妙变化,弃用经济增长风险偏向下档描述,兼把及时采取行动之承诺转化成必要时采取行动。消息反映将暂停减息行动但仍有减息倾向,美元初步反应不佳。周五见4月份非农业职位仅减少2万个,失业率更意外下降到5.0%,此外联储局进一步提高向金融机构的资金标售规模及增加向欧盟央行与瑞士央行的互换额度,信贷市场紧张状况可望进一步纾缓,数据及消息都提振美元更打压欧元及瑞郎走势。上周油价及欧元回挫对金价自有压力,唯巳不成正比亦反映金价早于3月中见顶后大幅回落,先行折现金融市场回稳削弱其避难作用的预期,现阶段似可于低位喘息反弹。
    技术图形方面黄金上周五下试日线图上之颈线846.0及回调0.5%之836.0此支持区(详情见上周五之分析),而全日最低见845.6后即出现回调,其后逐步上扬至859.0,并于855.0水平附近收市,在图形上黄金已开始接近较重要的支持区,故相信黄金短期需作出调整及巩固后或再次下试及确认该支持区,现估计黄金回调至873.5附近应有阻力,可在此区间看空,目标看857.5或853.0,甚至846.5,但如穿破止损位876.5,则或扩大调整至883.0甚至887.0。

    黄金在873.5可做空,以858.0或853.5为目标,止损位877.0

  2. #2
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    Default

    金价不是能到2000吗。呵呵。买,就是个买。

  3. #3
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    Default

    金价应该是一直上升的趋势,从周期看,现在应该是回调

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