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Thread: 利率在外汇交易中的影响有多大,是怎么影响的

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    Piplet
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    Default 利率在外汇交易中的影响有多大,是怎么影响的

    调整银行利率是国家控制其货币政策的重要手段。一国的中央银行主要通过利率这个工具控制货币供给量的变化,以达到控制通货膨胀、促进经济发展的目的。一般地,利率的降低会降低对货币的需求,造成本国货币贬值;利率的上涨会增加对货币的需求,造成本国货币升值。由于利率调整对经济的影响具有滞后性,因此这种理论上的影响往往在几个月之后才能在市场中得以体现。

    市场的预期不同也会对汇价走势带来影响。当市场认为减息有利于经济发展时,减息行为将成为对汇价走势的利好消息;当市场认为升息虽然能够抑制通货膨胀,但同时也限制经济发展时,升息行为将会带来不利影响。

    另外,市场可能提前对利息变化做出反应,提前消化。当央行公布利率变化时,并不会出现央行升息,汇价上涨,央行降息,汇价下跌的情况。

    因此,我们对待利率,不能照搬教条方法,须结合技术面,心理面等综合因素,才能对市场走势作出正确分析。

    就现实案例而言,近期(2007年夏纽元的强势,就与纽西兰联储将利息升高至百分之八有关。纽元在现在,属于典型的高息货币。

    就利息与汇价背离而言,请参考美国在1995年之前曾经调高利率的情形提升美元利率数十次,但美元兑主要货币却持续破底。

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    Elder Analyst
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    是的,一般地,利率的降低会降低对货币的需求,造成本国货币贬值;利率 的上涨会增加对货币的需求,造成本国货币升值

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