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Thread: News strategy...

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    Lightbulb News strategy...

    Teman-teman mari berbagi pengalaman tentang Trading menjelang Berita.
    Harga kadang tidak menentu,mau keatas atau kebawah.
    dan kadang sulit untuk Open position. entah itu untuk waktu beli ataupun akan close. kadang kita sudah tekan enter...seringkali harus requote...
    sampai pada keadaan yang sebenarnya tidak kita inginkan...
    menurut saya sebaiknya kita buat :
    OB = Harga saat ini +30 pips , TP = (misal) 50pips
    OS = harga saat ini -30 pips, TP = (misal) 50 pips
    bagaimana teman teman ?
    ada yang mau sharing ? ditunggu yach..sm_smile

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    Default Japanese Yen May Fall on Lower Currency Option Volatility

    Ini ada berita terutama yang trade di JPY, entah Pair US-JPY, GBP-JPY

    Implied volatility is one of the most tried and true methods for objectively measuring expected volatility in the spot market. Derived from currency options with different maturities, implied volatilities are used to help predict potential movements in the spot market and is one of the most popular strategies of systems traders and other professional hedge funds.



    At its most fundamental, the basic and intuitive interpretation of this implied data is often the most telling for traders. Taken alone, a steady rise in the longer-term implied volatility (the red line) is indicative of a strengthening trend; while inversely, a decline often reveals that a period of range or consolidation in spot is ahead or already in place. Additionally, the histogram or spread between the shorter and longer-term implied volatilities (the blue colored bars) tells a different perspective. As the histogram rises, volatility is expected to pick up faster in the near future relative to the longer-term range. Ultimately, this increases the probability of a breakout scenario in the underlying currency.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails 2008-05-16_3.jpg  

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    Default Senin, 19 May

    Hari ini berita tentang leading indicator di US.

    Definition
    US Leading Indicators is a composite index designed to forecast trends in the overall economy. The index is based on ten key indicators known to precede changes in the economy. Though the index has a less than perfect historical record, it still is a worthwhile forecasting tool. Given the high volume of economic data, the Leading Indicators Index is useful by condensing ten indicators into one value headline figure.

    Headline numbers will be a percentage annual growth of the overall composite. As high values are indicative of economic growth, such figures bode well for the overall US Economy. Uncontrolled growth lead by this figure however may raise concerns about inflation and economic stability.

    Note: The indicators included in the figure are (in order of decreasing weight): interest rate spread, M2 money supply, average manufacturing workweek, manufacturers' new orders, S&P 500, average weekly unemployment claims, vendor performance, housing permits, consumer expectations and manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods.

    Relevance : Rarely affects markets
    Release schedule : 10:00 AM (EST); monthly, three weeks following the end of the reporting month

    sepertinya tidak terlalu berpengaruh ke Forex...maksudnya tidak terlalu jump up/down...

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    Default

    gw pernah bro trading news, pas news release harga masih fluktuatif ...jadi hit BUy TP hit SELL juga TP.....tapi katanya skrg sudah bisa diantisipasi ma broker ma spread nya di melarin..........

    tp gw masih make tehnik "perangkap gajah tanpa indikator" sampai skrg profit

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    Default Hedging Through USDJPY Retrace Protects Longs

    As the worse of risk aversion abated, USDJPY began to lift from March lows at 91.71 to enter into what is now a nearly 2-month long uptrend. Price action had been guided by an upward sloping trend line, a support that has recently been broken as USDJPY settled into consolidation between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of the 12/27/07-03/17 decline at 102.91 and 105.17, respectively. The first test of Fib resistance failed and allowed Yen bulls to push USDJPY through trend line support to rest at the lower Fib level. The decline lost steam here and has oscillated higher again. Now again at resistance, we see the level has been made more difficult to penetrate with the trend line turned from support to resistance. We see a strong possibility of another pullback before bullish momentum resumes in earnest.

    Hedging Strategy

    Currency Pair: USDJPY

    Long Term Bias: Bullish
    Long Term Position: Holding Long
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails 05-14-2008.jpg  

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    Default Hebat...

    Quote Originally Posted by utti_trader View Post
    gw pernah bro trading news, pas news release harga masih fluktuatif ...jadi hit BUy TP hit SELL juga TP.....tapi katanya skrg sudah bisa diantisipasi ma broker ma spread nya di melarin..........

    tp gw masih make tehnik "perangkap gajah tanpa indikator" sampai skrg profit
    Hebat...kalau bisa masuk menjelang news...kadang susah dapetnya..
    pas dapet tidak sesuai dengan harga yang kita mau...
    mungkin ada trik khusus nich, bagaimana perangkap dan biasanya di berita apa pasang perangkapnya...
    sukses ya...

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    Default Senin 19 May,berita USA

    Hari ini 19 May, berita US jam 9 malam WIB tentang Leading indicator..
    ada forecast dari beberapa profesional (dalam attachment)
    diharapkan leading indicator Naik..jadi US bisa naik...
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails leading indicator.JPG  

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    Default

    Senin 19 May , Leading Indicator US Naik, naik sekitar 75 pips...setelah news
    US Leading Indicators is a composite index designed to forecast trends in the overall economy. The index is based on ten key indicators known to precede changes in the economy. Though the index has a less than perfect historical record, it still is a worthwhile forecasting tool. Given the high volume of economic data, the Leading Indicators Index is useful by condensing ten indicators into one value headline figure.

    Headline numbers will be a percentage annual growth of the overall composite. As high values are indicative of economic growth, such figures bode well for the overall US Economy. Uncontrolled growth lead by this figure however may raise concerns about inflation and economic stability.

    Note: The indicators included in the figure are (in order of decreasing weight): interest rate spread, M2 money supply, average manufacturing workweek, manufacturers' new orders, S&P 500, average weekly unemployment claims, vendor performance, housing permits, consumer expectations and manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods.

    Relevance : Rarely affects markets
    Release schedule : 10:00 AM (EST); monthly, three weeks following the end of the reporting month
    Source of report : Conference Board
    Web Address : www.globalindicators.org
    Address of release : http://www.conference-board.org/econ...indicators.cfm
    Refer > US Leading Indicators
    AKA : Index of Leading Indicators, LEI

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    Default

    Selasa, 20 Mei Jam 6.50 AM

    Evaluates the monthly change in output produced by Japan's service sector. Japan's economy is very export based, because this report excludes manufacturing and only measures service industries catering mainly to domestic needs, the Tertiary Industry Index is a key indicator of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved with wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure, and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. The tertiary industry index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month's figure.

    Relevance : Tends to move markets on release
    Release Schedule: 23:50 (GMT); 2-3 weeks after the reporting period
    Source of Report: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
    Web Address: http://www.meti.go.jp/english/index.html
    Address of Release: http:// www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics
    AKA: Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity

    Prediksi Naik....

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    Smile 22 May

    22 may, Ketenagakerjaan....

    Unemployment Claim seharusnya turun...
    kalau turun berarti bagus...

    Unemployment claims are running at elevated levels, but well below levels experienced in the past two recessions. The four-week moving average has been near 375,000 since early March. This steady trend contrasts with the sharp increase in claims that occurred ahead of the 2001 recession, when claims spiked to over 400,000 per week by mid-April after the start of recession in January. The current trend in claims is consistent with moderate declines in payrolls, but not at the rate of 150,000 per month or more seen in true recessions.

    Mudah-mudahan turun....
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails claims.jpg  

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    Default Tidak terlalu berpengaruh..

    Quote Originally Posted by henri.wisdom View Post
    Selasa, 20 Mei Jam 6.50 AM

    Evaluates the monthly change in output produced by Japan's service sector. Japan's economy is very export based, because this report excludes manufacturing and only measures service industries catering mainly to domestic needs, the Tertiary Industry Index is a key indicator of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved with wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure, and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. The tertiary industry index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month's figure.

    Relevance : Tends to move markets on release
    Release Schedule: 23:50 (GMT); 2-3 weeks after the reporting period
    Source of Report: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
    Web Address: http://www.meti.go.jp/english/index.html
    Address of Release: http:// www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics
    AKA: Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity

    Prediksi Naik....
    Tidak terlalu berpengaruh ke chart...
    seperti tidak ada berita...saya sich sebenarnya mau melihat kalau ada berita bagus dari Jepang, apakah US-JPY akan naik atau turun, seharusnya kalau bagus khan grafik turun...mungkin ada teman-teman ada yang pernah mengikuti berita dari jepang, yang mempengaruhi chart ? berita apa saja...
    makasih ditunggu kabarnya...

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    Default 20 May, Selasa

    Akan ada berita PPI US,
    diprediksikan turun...dan kalau turun, berarti chart akan turun...
    News jam 7.30 pm WIB....

    PPI :
    Definition
    Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

    A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

    The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

    Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods price do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

    Core PPI, Excluding Food and Energy

    The PPI is also reported without the volatile food and energy components. In addition to being seasonally volatile, the two comprise a significant portion of US goods. As a result, any sudden disruption in oil or food supplies will significantly distort the Producer Price Index inflation assessment. By excluding such entities, Core PPI is able to provide a truer, more consistent picture of US inflation trends.

    Relevance: Moderate market impact
    Release schedule : 12:30 (GMT); monthly, 2 weeks after the reporting month
    Revision schedule: one monthly revision after four months, annual revisions every February
    Source of report : Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor
    Web Address : www.bls.gov
    Address of release : http://www.bls.gov/ppi/

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    Default

    kock sepertinya tidak ada berita dari Jepang yang berpengaruh di chart yach...
    padahal katanya HIGH (hijau), beritanya merah , kok turun yach..
    saya di US-JPY.mestinya orang pada beli US, jual Yen...kok kebalikan yach...
    saya sedang mengamati bila ada berita dari Jepang, seberapa besar pengaruhnya dalam chart. mungkin ada rekan rekan trader yang ada pengalaman tentang ini ?
    makasih ditunggu sharingnya...

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    Default

    mnrt gw news adalah saatnya mendulang pips...krn aman banget waktu ada news, kita ngikut aja trendnya ke atas ato kebawah

    TAPI ITU DULU

    skrg broker udah mengantisipasi hal itu dg melarin spreadnya sampe puluhan pips

    jadi ati2 aja trading news...ntar maunya untung malah buntung

    Quote Originally Posted by utti_trader View Post

    tp gw masih make tehnik "perangkap gajah tanpa indikator" sampai skrg profit
    wah..serius nih??
    gw pake perangkap gajah tanpa indikator minggu lalu loss 90 pips

    ajarin donk bos caranya pasang perangkap...
    Last edited by autodel; 05-21-2008 at 05:32 AM. Reason: merged

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    Default

    tar ada berita mpc
    kira kira pergerakan GU apa lanjut bullish apa bakal bearish bro
    karena mau ada cut rates

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