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Thread: Technical Analysis

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    Default Technical Analysis

    Who going to start this?
    sm_rolleye

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    A news about pound. The pound gained a small boost from solid UK first quarter GDP numbers, which showed the economy grew by more than expected, helped by another strong performance from the services sector.

    Any comment?

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    And further more, German IFO coming out. There are three different numbers which are IFO expctatoins, IFO current assessment, and IFO Business Climate.
    IFO Business Climate is a cmposition of current assesment and expectations, and my focus will be on it. It's expected to come out at around 108.0 If the number comes out at 110.0 or higher, not only will it be the highest reading in many years, but it will also be above the 110.0 psychological level, so EUR/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
    Let say the IFO climate comes out at 104.9 or lower, it would be the lowest reading since beginning of 2006, and be a very shocking drop, considering that last month the number was at 107.7, and EUR/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I may possibly place a trade even if the deviations are smaller, but it will depend on the price levels before the report, and the move may be smaller.

    any comments about this?

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    Default

    Today at 0.6830.
    an expactaion of corrective/consolidation activity between 0.6810 and 0.6852 is likely for a while. Just look at the chart....

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    Default

    2-5-2007
    eur/gbp 0.6828
    after break high 0.6834
    still want high i think at 0.6900

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    7-5-2007
    EUR/GBP .6825 -1
    Long 2 units .6829, stop loss .6801
    Sell 2 units on stop .6781, stop loss .6829

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    Default

    9-5-2007
    eur/gbp 0.6793
    buy 2 lot at 0.6800 stop lost at 0.6775

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    Default

    10-5-2007
    eur/gbp resistance in 0.6794

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    EUR is just steady above .6780, but we see gains capped by congestion resistance. Levels now are .6800 and .6810, then .6816. (The max. upside seen, but not expected, is .6828/29.)

    Later failure of .6780 is in focus, to test .6765, .6750/45. [AW]


    R5: 0.6835 * 3-May/ last week high

    R4: 0.6828/9 * 8, 7 May highs

    R3: 0.682 8-May am break

    R2: 0.6810/6 * 9 May high, hour low

    R1: 0.68 hour extremes, cong.

    S1: 0.678 * 9 May low

    S2: 0.6765 18-Apr high volume

    S3: 0.675 18 Apr low

    S4: 0.6745 * 3-Apr low

    S5: .6740 * 2-Mar pivot

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    17 May EUR/GBP Daily

    07:50 - THE EUR dropped into last week's high yesterday and will look to work back higher now. There's some resistance at .6855-60 blocking a run on to the March & YTD high. [NR]

    R5: .6925 13-Jul-06 am high volume
    R4: .6885~ * trendline off 2003 high
    R3: .6885 * 18-Jul sell start
    R2: 0.6865 ** Mar-07/ YTD high
    R1: 0.6855 15-May high
    S1: 0.6835 Thurs am pivot
    S2: 0.683 * 7-May/ last week high
    S3: 0.6825 14-May high volume
    S4: 0.681 * 11-May breakpt
    S5: 0.6805 11-May pivot

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    We continue to suspect that EUR/CHF has recently charted an interim top. The market has recently failed at 1.6612, this was in close
    proximity to major resistance at 1.6580/90 (the 1998 high and 78.6% retracement of the move down from the January 1997 peak). The daily RSI
    momentum oscillator shows signs of a triple divergence – this implies that we will see a decent correction lower. Initial corrective target is 1.6450,
    the 23.6% retracement f the move from the 1.5930/March low. However we suspect that this decline will extend further short term and head back
    towards 1.6275/85.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    EUR/GBP remains on course for key support at .6745/40. These represent the 100 and 200 day moving averages and the April low,
    we look for the market to hold here and recover. The market will remain offered this week while capped by .6790/.6800. Slightly longer term,
    support at .6740 will need to hold for a neutral to positive bias to be maintained – failure would imply that the market had topped for now, implying
    losses to .6700, .6660.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    Default Weekly Technical Commentary

    Chart Levels:

    Support 0.6768..0.6745..0.6700..0.6680.
    Resistance 0.6820..0.6845..0.6900..0.6965.

    This week: →
    This month: →

    After weeks flirting with the 0.6850 area, the mean price of the last four years, participants at last decided it would cap. This has shunted the Euro down to 0.6745, the lower edge of this year's trading band. This will probably hold this week but next month or late in Q2 we favour a drop to no lower than 0.6700. Further out this currency pair is now likely to trade randomly between 0.6700 and 0.6900, most of the time, for many months. Much further down the line there is still a chance that we may re-test the key 0.6550 level again. At-the-money implied volatility is drifting back down towards the record low 3.30% as this pair is just too boring for words.


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    30 May EUR/GBP Daily
    07:25 - Trade back up through the range yesterday was brisk- EUR beat .6780 to reach the 3-month pivot at .6800, and starts about even today, in middle of Tues' range. There's support at
    .6770; resistance at .6810 to keep the market even today. Generally, below .6800~ is longer term weak. [NR]

    R5: 0.6845 21-May am high volume
    R4: 0.6835 * 22-May break
    R3: 0.683 22-May high volume
    R2: 0.681 23-May am high volume
    R1: 0.6800~ ** Mar-May range pivot
    S1: 0.6770~ 200 day EMA
    S2: 0.677 29-May high volume
    S3: 0.6755 * 25-May/ last week low
    S4: 0.6745 3-Apr low
    S5: .6740 * 2-Mar pivot
    Is Cookin!!!

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    EUR/GBP has seen a strong rebound just ahead of the long term moving averages at .6745/40. This implies that the 2 month range
    between .6740 and .6852 continues to dominate short tterm and further ranging is likely, probes down to the long term moving averages at
    .6745/40 remain feasible but if seen we look for this to hold the downside and provoke recovery. Interim resistance lies at .6810/20 (minor
    Fibonacci retracements ) and the market will need to regain these levels to reassert upside pressure in the range.
    Is Cookin!!!

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