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Thread: 贸易平衡是什么?

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    Default 贸易平衡是什么?

    (1)贸易平衡的含义
    外贸平衡数字(Trade Balance Figure)反映了国与国之间的商品贸易状况,是判断宏观经济运行状况的重要指标,也是外汇交易基本分析的重要指标之一。如果一个国家的进口总额大于出口,于是便会出现贸易逆差的情形;如果出口大于进口,便称之为贸易顺差;如果出口等于进口,就称之为贸易平衡。美国贸易数字每月公布一次,每月末公布上月的数字。我国至少每季也要公布进出口数字。

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    (2)贸易平衡的解读
    如果一个国家经常出现贸易逆差现象,国民收入便会流出国外,使国家经济表现转弱。政府若要改善这种状况,就必须要把国家的货币贬值,因为币值下降,即变相把出口商品价格降低,可以提高出口产品的竞争能力。因此,当该国外贸赤字扩大时,就会利淡该国货币,令该国货币下跌;反之,当出现外贸盈余时,则是利好该种货币的。因此,国际贸易状况是影响外汇汇率十分重要的因素。日美之间的贸易摩擦充分说明这一点。美国对日本的贸易连年出现逆差,致使美国贸易收支的恶化。为了限制日本对美贸易的顺差,美国政府对日施加压力,迫使日元升值。而日本政府则千方百计防止日元升值过快,以保持较有利的贸易状况。

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    由一国对外贸易状况而对汇率造成的影响出发,可以看出国际收支状况直接影响一国汇率的变动。如果一国国际收支出现顺差,对该国的货币需求就会增加,流人该国的外汇就会增加,从而导致该国货币汇率上升。相反,如果一国国际收支出现逆差,对该国货币需求就会减少,流人该国的外汇就会减少,从而导致该国货币汇率下降,该国货币贬值。具体说来,在国际收支诸项目中对汇率变动影响最大的除了上面的贸易项目外,还有资本项目。贸易收支的顺差或逆差直接影响着货币汇率的上升或下降。例如,美元汇率下跌的一个重要原因,就是美国的贸易逆差愈益严重。相反,日本由于巨额的贸易顺差,国际收支情况较好,日元的外汇汇率呈不断上升的趋势。同样,资本项目的顺差或逆差直接影响着货币汇率的涨跌,当一国资本项目有大量逆差,国际收支的其他项目又不足以弥补时,该国国际收支会出现逆差,从而引起本国货币对外汇率下跌。反之,则会引起本国货币汇率的上升。

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