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Thread: 一个检验系统或规则有效性的非常简单的方法

  1. #1
    goodboyman
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    Default 一个检验系统或规则有效性的非常简单的方法

    当你基本确立了你的外汇操盘系统或者叫操作规则,当然从历史数据检验其有效性或成功率是不可缺少的方法之一,同时另外,我在长期实战中感觉并发现了一个颇为简单和有效的方法,那就是如果由于心理因素或其他什么因素,你没有按照规则做,但结果确实可以赚钱的,如果这种次数越多,越说明你的系统有效性差。
    之所以如此说,其实我也确实很多没有100%严格按规则行事,其中包括不该赚的想去赚,该赚的由于各种心理因素而没有更多拿到,这些都是事实上没有按规则或系统行事,结果我发现,在我记忆中,就没有赚过,更多的都是大亏或暴仓。其实这个也反过来证明了系统的有效性。
    系统的有效性越高,哪怕你一点点没有按规则行事,其结果就是失败。没有任何一次半次侥幸的机会。这类似于反证法。
    大家不妨在实战中观察一下,不过我可不是建议你们用不守规则来测试你的系统,但我也相信大家难免会有不遵守规则的时候,那么这时你看看你是失败了还是侥幸赚钱了。
    失败了不要气馁,这也说明系统是有效的,侥幸赚钱,那么早晚还有要还给市场的。

  2. #2
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    抽空检验一下自己的系统,看看有效不?

  3. #3
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    一个有效的系统就应该如此,如不是就跟随机买卖一样了

  4. #4
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    看来有必要检验一下自己的交易系统了

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