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Thread: 宋德才:衰退不代表美元一定走软(转载)

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    Default 宋德才:衰退不代表美元一定走软(转载)

    美国劳工部公布的就业数据显示美国非农就业人口连续第三个月减少,美国失业率跃升至两年半来最高,进一步显示楼市的低迷和信贷危机可能推动美国经济陷入衰退。非农业岗位在3月减少8万个,高于预期,呈现五年来最大的降幅。金融市场预期这些会推动美联储进一步降息。美国经济自2003年连续五个月减少就业以来 ,首次出现就业机会连续三个月缩水的局面。美国经济在今年初开始进入衰退的概率正在上升,在今年1月和2月两个月期间减少的工作岗位共计15.2万个,远高于之前8.5万个的预期,失业率从4.8%激增至5.1%,创下自2005年9月以来最高。



    多数经济学家在目睹第三个月的下滑数字后确信美国经济已经陷入了衰退。此次经济衰退的时间可能会比前两次稍长,第一季看到的迹象显示美国经济已经进入衰退,但仍预期今年稍晚经济增长速度将会增加,美联储主席伯南克上周向国会表示,可能会陷入经济衰退。去年第四季到今年首季,经济发展速度很明显极为缓慢,经济的持续恶化让美国人担心不已。81%受访者表示,事态向着错误轨道上的发展非常严重,一年前这一数字则为69%,2002年初则为35%. 美元周五应声下跌,欧元和日圆兑美元均上涨,但数据对市场来说并非十分出乎意料,市场长时间以来一直预期美联储在本月稍后再度降息,降息已被视为家常便饭,多数不利美元和美国经济的因素已被市场吸收。



    历史来看,美元可能正在构筑底部,欧元兑美元涨0.3%报1.5728美元,最高涨至1.5774美元,美元兑日圆下滑0.7%报101.58日圆,美元兑瑞郎跌0.4%报1.0060瑞郎,但美元指数上周却上涨0.5%,市场希望在本周四欧洲央行会议召开前降低对欧元的押注,欧洲央行预计将维持利率在4%不变,欧元兑美元本周将可能陷于1.55-1.58的区间波动,若美国经济继续恶化或又有另一家美国银行发生大额抵押贷款相关损失,美元仍将面临下跌风险,很难相信美元疲势已近结束,但欧元好景可能也接近尾声,美国就业环境恶化是让人担心的问题,尤其是3月失业率跳升至5.1%,需要看到美联储降息后的效果显现,高息货币澳元兑美元涨0.6%,因应升息预期,而美元兑加元攀升0.4%,加拿大政府报告显示该国失业率上升幅度高于预期助燃了对该国央行将降息的预期。若走势进一步突破需出现更可怕的传言,否则欧罗上升最多在1.5800附近再次却步,回撤的水准在1.5600,逢高沽出是短期策略。

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    Default

    遗憾的是美圆就是疲软 事实就是这样

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