Before I get myself into trouble, let me point out that there is no "Holy Grail" trading system in the world - not yet anyway. If there is, please let me know. I don't mind paying a thousand bucks for it. However, a trading system close to the "Holy Grail" is indeed possible and I'll show you how to develop it.
But before we come to that, here's what we all know. Forex is the biggest financial market in the world, with its daily volume of transactions dwarfing the US stock markets by 10 to 1. Its sheer size also makes it the best market to trade in terms of (1) high liquidity - Forex trades are almost always instantly executed, thus minimizing slippage; and (2) open and fair - it is impossible for one to control or manipulate the market for any length of time, rendering "insider trading" impossible to carry out.
What moves Forex? Conventional thinking would imply economic fundamentals or factors such as the strength of a country's economy, which contributes to currency flows. Therefore, one would assume that everyone else would buy the US dollar against the British pound. Why not? The US economy is the largest in the world while that of Great Britain has fallen to fifth, behind the US, Japan, Germany and China.
The theory of "the bigger the economy is, the more attractive its currency will be" may be true but in reality, the sterling has advanced more against the dollar. Why is this so?
Let's dissect the market by taking a look at the players in the currency market. They are the financial institutions, commercial banks, insurance firms, pension funds, hedge funds, small funds, international businesses, private investors, retail traders and not forgetting, individuals. Each plays a part in determining the movement of a currency. We can divide them into two categories - "commercial" and "non-commercial".
The "commercials" engage in business activities requiring the use of currencies, whereas the "non-commercials" are into the Forex market for speculative purpose. Therefore the philosophies of the "commercials" and "non-commercials" are very much different - when the "commercials" buy, the "non-commercials" sell; and when the "commercials" sell, the "non-commercials" buy. It is this different point-of-view from two different types of traders, market makers or investors that moves the Forex market.
We have gone through the easy part of identifying the movers of the market. The question now is how to use this piece of information to trade Forex successfully and how to use the above information to develop a "Holy Grail" (almost) trading system.
Earlier, we have determined who the movers of the currency market are. The "commercials" are involved in a nature of business that requires Forex transactions. Examples would be commercial banks, insurance firms and international companies. On the other hand, the "non-commercials" are in the market solely for speculative purpose. Examples would be hedge funds, small funds, private investors, retail traders and individuals.
Best times to trade
Even though the Forex market opens 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, there are specific times in a day where the volume of transactions are high. These are the London session (3AM EST to noon EST), New York session (8AM EST to 5PM EST) and Tokyo session (7PM EST to 4AM EST), in the order of market volume size. Therefore the most profitable trades, in terms of price movement, are usually found in these times. It is advisable for traders to trade during these times.
Best currencies to trade
Every nation in the world has its own currency - the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Russian ruble, South African rand, Mexican peso, Thai baht, Indian rupee, and so on. However the most traded currencies, with the highest volume and liquidity, are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound and the Swiss franc, with euro (EUR/USD) being the most traded currency pair.
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